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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Eurodollars(CME) as of Jun 01, 2011
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29
Closed Higher 14 14 20 18 20 21 21 14 18 15 14
Exceeded High 13 13 16 16 20 20 15 12 17 11 8
Scenario Percentage 93% 93% 80% 89% 100% 95% 71% 86% 94% 73% 57%
Avg Max Increase 0.83% 0.73% 0.74% 0.77% 0.78% 0.61% 0.66% 0.84% 0.38% 0.21% 0.14%
Max Increase 2.51% 1.65% 2.42% 2.18% 4.13% 3.01% 1.74% 1.83% 1.05% 0.65% 0.44%
Avg Days To Max Increase 17 20 15 19 17 13 19 19 15 11 7
Avg Max Decline -0.07% -0.17% -0.11% -0.09% -0.20% -0.13% -0.08% -0.15% -0.13% -0.06% -0.03%
Max Decline -0.24% -0.75% -0.51% -0.29% -0.96% -0.54% -0.23% -0.54% -0.83% -0.16% -0.13%
Avg Days to Max Decline 6 7 7 10 8 5 7 7 8 3 2
2011 Contract Condition Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes
Action Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes No   Yes Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29
Closed Lower 14 15 9 11 8 8 7 14 10 14 15
Penetrated Low 13 10 3 7 4 4 5 9 7 11 14
Scenario Percentage 93% 67% 33% 64% 50% 50% 71% 64% 70% 79% 93%
Avg Max Decline 0.73% 0.36% 0.34% 0.44% 0.77% 0.64% 0.51% 0.29% 0.38% 0.23% 1.99%
Max Decline 2.28% 0.94% 0.54% 1.20% 1.94% 1.18% 1.12% 0.73% 1.10% 0.93% 6.11%
Avg Days To Max Decline 15 12 10 17 14 17 18 16 19 9 15
Avg Max Increase -0.09% -0.20% -0.16% -0.18% -0.14% -0.11% -0.10% -0.06% -0.06% -0.07% -0.13%
Max Increase -0.43% -0.64% -0.19% -0.50% -0.37% -0.17% -0.18% -0.14% -0.24% -0.23% -0.57%
Avg Days to Max Increase 5 5 11 9 6 8 4 3 9 5 -99
2011 Contract Condition   Yes           Yes      
Action   No           Yes      
High 99.015 99.040 99.185 99.505 99.590 99.600 99.650 99.645 99.640 99.665 99.688
Low 98.640 98.730 98.830 99.130 99.440 99.435 99.555 99.395 99.380 99.590 99.645
Close/Last 98.900 98.875 99.160 99.490 99.525 99.590 99.635 99.425 99.635 99.655 99.685

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Newsflash

Will the stock market continue its tradition of rallying into the new year?  Will there be another "Santa Claus rally?"

After a frightening decline after Brexit and another overnight in an initial response to Donald Trump's election upset, several US stock indices returned toward their all-time highs --- although some international markets are lagging.  Does that provide incredible opportunity?  But which way and when?

MRCI's  Historical Indices Report, complete with seasonal patterns not only for US futures on S&P500, S&P MidCap 400, NASDAQ 100, Russe ll 2000, and DJIA but also for futures on several major international indices including the FT-SE 100, CAC 40, Nikkei 225, DAX, Euro STOXX 50, Swiss Market Index, SPI 200, and Hang Seng Index.