MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December US Dollar Index(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	21	21	21	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22
Closed Higher	13	9	10	7	12	11	12	8	8	7	10
Exceeded High	10	7	9	6	10	11	7	4	8	5	6
Scenario Percentage	77%	78%	90%	86%	83%	100%	58%	50%	100%	71%	60%
Avg Max Increase	2.86%	2.78%	3.52%	3.32%	2.75%	2.82%	2.62%	3.04%	3.53%	2.87%	0.89%
Max Increase	6.39%	5.08%	6.68%	7.15%	8.36%	6.64%	6.82%	5.86%	10.71%	4.08%	1.63%
Avg Days To Max Increase	20	18	19	20	10	14	15	18	18	13	6
Avg Max Decline	-1.22%	-0.46%	-0.78%	-0.89%	-0.92%	-0.34%	-0.61%	-0.84%	-0.78%	-0.61%	-0.33%
Max Decline	-2.60%	-1.05%	-2.76%	-1.59%	-2.17%	-0.91%	-1.43%	-1.52%	-2.13%	-1.13%	-1.05%
Avg Days to Max Decline	8	12	12	6	7	6	5	6	4	3	2
2007 Contract Condition	Yes				Yes			Yes
Action	No				Yes			No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	21	21	21	22	22	22	22	22	22	22	22
Closed Lower	8	12	11	15	10	11	10	14	14	15	12
Penetrated Low	6	8	11	10	9	10	9	13	13	12	10
Scenario Percentage	75%	67%	100%	67%	90%	91%	90%	93%	93%	80%	83%
Avg Max Decline	3.99%	3.54%	3.39%	3.55%	3.49%	3.67%	3.01%	3.93%	3.98%	3.55%	4.20%
Max Decline	6.90%	6.29%	6.77%	8.27%	7.61%	7.14%	5.00%	9.15%	7.85%	6.04%	19.07%
Avg Days To Max Decline	18	24	16	15	17	19	16	16	20	11	13
Avg Max Increase	-0.66%	-1.33%	-0.98%	-0.35%	-0.51%	-0.30%	-1.17%	-0.63%	-1.08%	-0.51%	-0.60%
Max Increase	-1.32%	-4.94%	-2.95%	-1.44%	-1.28%	-1.50%	-3.33%	-2.41%	-3.06%	-1.55%	-1.85%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	10	6	5	4	5	13	6	11	6	4
2007 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	84.360	84.170	83.330	82.430	81.870	82.700	81.250	81.780	80.900	78.800	76.830
Low	82.220	82.520	82.010	80.770	80.950	81.360	79.720	79.790	77.580	76.460	74.650
Close/Last	83.640	82.640	82.180	80.820	81.750	81.470	80.460	80.595	77.625	76.460	76.170