MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September US Dollar Index(ICE) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		29	29	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Higher		12	17	13	18	13	16	9	20	13	16	14
Exceeded High		10	10	11	13	12	14	8	18	12	11	8
Scenario Percentage		83%	59%	85%	72%	92%	88%	89%	90%	92%	69%	57%
Avg Max Increase		2.77%	3.71%	3.55%	3.09%	3.56%	3.63%	3.99%	2.40%	2.80%	2.98%	2.55%
Max Increase		5.41%	8.94%	8.79%	6.46%	11.65%	7.77%	8.45%	8.42%	6.58%	9.50%	5.01%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	19	15	19	18	20	19	13	12	12	11
Avg Max Decline		-0.28%	-0.83%	-0.73%	-1.32%	-0.35%	-1.11%	-0.80%	-1.55%	-0.54%	-0.60%	-0.47%
Max Decline		-1.29%	-2.09%	-3.13%	-2.62%	-1.12%	-3.11%	-1.58%	-4.18%	-1.20%	-1.51%	-1.50%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	13	5	7	13	14	7	10	6	4	4
2016 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	No		No				Yes	Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		29	29	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Lower		17	12	18	13	18	15	22	11	18	15	17
Penetrated Low		11	9	14	11	13	14	16	9	16	14	14
Scenario Percentage		65%	75%	78%	85%	72%	93%	73%	82%	89%	93%	82%
Avg Max Decline		3.90%	4.09%	2.71%	3.40%	3.64%	3.90%	3.14%	3.75%	3.25%	2.24%	2.36%
Max Decline		9.09%	7.55%	7.67%	6.83%	6.82%	7.71%	8.54%	8.15%	7.14%	5.15%	4.13%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	17	15	17	21	14	12	19	16	10	10
Avg Max Increase		-0.21%	-0.59%	-0.94%	-0.72%	-1.09%	-1.02%	-0.80%	-0.92%	-0.98%	-1.11%	-0.40%
Max Increase		-1.30%	-1.90%	-2.49%	-2.47%	-5.25%	-3.06%	-3.44%	-2.64%	-3.40%	-3.11%	-2.29%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	4	9	6	11	7	6	5	8	6	2
2016 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
High	97.580	98.505	100.950	100.890	100.030	99.170	98.745	95.270	95.980	96.865	97.620	96.500
Low	95.248	94.500	97.373	97.395	98.403	95.500	94.450	93.065	92.000	93.025	95.335	94.050
Close/Last	97.040	97.465	100.560	98.865	99.775	98.425	94.660	93.148	95.892	96.203	95.490	96.013