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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for June US Dollar Index(ICE) as of Jul 15, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   37 39 39 39 39 40 40 40 40 40 40
Closed Higher   17 19 19 17 22 14 22 21 21 13 23
Exceeded High   11 13 16 15 16 13 17 20 17 11 15
Scenario Percentage   65% 68% 84% 88% 73% 93% 77% 95% 81% 85% 65%
Avg Max Increase   3.63% 3.64% 3.41% 2.52% 2.89% 3.12% 3.39% 3.51% 3.64% 2.97% 1.54%
Max Increase   9.23% 13.23% 12.46% 5.46% 8.65% 8.79% 7.35% 11.75% 7.79% 8.31% 3.39%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 20 15 16 17 14 17 18 19 14 9
Avg Max Decline   -0.43% -0.72% -0.64% -0.47% -1.12% -0.62% -1.42% -0.72% -1.07% -0.68% -0.65%
Max Decline   -1.21% -2.26% -2.60% -2.54% -2.70% -3.15% -2.98% -3.33% -3.17% -1.69% -2.01%
Avg Days to Max Decline   4 8 9 6 14 5 10 10 13 5 5
2025 Contract Condition         Yes Yes Yes          
Action         Yes Yes Yes          
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   37 39 39 39 39 40 40 40 40 40 40
Closed Lower   20 20 20 22 17 26 18 19 19 27 17
Penetrated Low   16 14 17 15 14 20 15 14 18 21 10
Scenario Percentage   80% 70% 85% 68% 82% 77% 83% 74% 95% 78% 59%
Avg Max Decline   2.45% 3.51% 3.35% 4.10% 4.24% 2.57% 3.08% 4.10% 3.74% 2.37% 1.62%
Max Decline   4.87% 7.73% 7.97% 9.26% 8.25% 8.05% 7.19% 8.85% 7.73% 7.55% 2.93%
Avg Days To Max Decline   22 18 21 20 17 13 18 22 14 9 10
Avg Max Increase   -1.14% -0.51% -0.77% -0.38% -0.47% -0.96% -1.09% -1.10% -1.19% -0.76% -0.40%
Max Increase   -3.62% -2.94% -2.98% -1.64% -2.19% -2.86% -2.78% -5.46% -3.24% -3.41% -0.90%
Avg Days to Max Increase   13 5 10 8 4 6 7 11 7 5 4
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes No No       Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
High 104.635 104.497 103.120 100.715 103.607 106.805 107.980 109.620 109.335 106.980 104.065 101.815
Low 103.825 102.372 99.415 99.540 100.355 102.670 104.940 106.500 105.650 102.830 97.680 98.590
Close/Last 104.465 102.775 100.575 99.945 103.192 105.113 107.935 107.857 107.162 103.882 99.270 99.260

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Central banks bought big, but the COT report waves a red flag. Seasonal gains await—Market players, read or regret! https://tinyurl.com/4antcta9