MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June US Dollar Index(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years	20	21	21	21	21	22	22	22	22	22	22
Closed Higher	11	8	8	8	10	8	13	9	11	7	12
Exceeded High	6	4	8	6	8	8	10	8	10	6	10
Scenario Percentage	55%	50%	100%	75%	80%	100%	77%	89%	91%	86%	83%
Avg Max Increase	2.43%	2.83%	3.19%	2.55%	3.09%	3.25%	3.01%	4.10%	3.63%	2.87%	1.59%
Max Increase	6.70%	5.64%	10.46%	5.33%	6.34%	8.79%	6.44%	11.75%	7.13%	5.84%	3.39%
Avg Days To Max Increase	15	18	15	19	18	13	18	19	21	16	10
Avg Max Decline	-0.52%	-0.73%	-0.69%	-0.38%	-1.07%	-0.67%	-1.44%	-0.62%	-1.28%	-0.92%	-0.68%
Max Decline	-1.21%	-1.38%	-2.35%	-1.22%	-2.70%	-3.15%	-2.98%	-1.04%	-3.17%	-1.69%	-2.01%
Avg Days to Max Decline	3	6	5	10	13	5	8	12	13	6	4
2007 Contract Condition	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes				Yes
Action	No		Yes			Yes	No				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years	20	21	21	21	21	22	22	22	22	22	22
Closed Lower	9	13	13	13	11	14	9	13	11	15	10
Penetrated Low	8	11	12	9	10	11	7	9	11	10	6
Scenario Percentage	89%	85%	92%	69%	91%	79%	78%	69%	100%	67%	60%
Avg Max Decline	2.62%	3.67%	3.69%	5.02%	4.52%	3.04%	3.92%	3.67%	3.61%	2.71%	5.33%
Max Decline	4.87%	7.73%	7.97%	9.26%	8.25%	8.05%	7.19%	6.88%	7.18%	5.48%	13.37%
Avg Days To Max Decline	18	18	23	21	17	13	20	22	12	9	20
Avg Max Increase	-1.06%	-0.56%	-0.93%	-0.14%	-0.55%	-0.72%	-0.80%	-1.48%	-1.20%	-0.44%	-0.73%
Max Increase	-3.62%	-2.94%	-2.98%	-1.30%	-2.19%	-1.55%	-1.48%	-5.46%	-3.06%	-1.71%	-1.51%
Avg Days to Max Increase	12	6	11	7	4	5	5	10	6	3	3
2007 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	85.670	84.410	85.110	86.320	84.960	83.570	84.920	84.750	84.050	82.970	82.500
Low	83.580	83.320	83.840	84.510	82.240	81.790	82.700	83.000	82.380	81.100	81.100
Close/Last	84.030	83.970	85.110	84.510	82.240	83.180	84.160	83.200	82.660	81.300	82.250