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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March US Dollar Index(ICE) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   36 36 37 39 39 39 39 39 40 40 40
Closed Higher   14 20 16 18 19 19 17 22 14 22 22
Exceeded High   11 17 14 12 13 17 13 15 13 16 17
Scenario Percentage   79% 85% 88% 67% 68% 89% 76% 68% 93% 73% 77%
Avg Max Increase   3.48% 1.91% 2.73% 3.53% 3.78% 3.40% 2.96% 3.12% 3.20% 2.92% 2.01%
Max Increase   7.91% 8.24% 6.47% 9.57% 13.34% 12.90% 5.38% 8.18% 8.96% 5.67% 5.31%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 15 15 17 18 16 17 16 13 10 8
Avg Max Decline   -0.64% -1.36% -0.36% -0.54% -0.78% -0.69% -0.83% -1.22% -0.72% -1.25% -0.27%
Max Decline   -2.17% -3.80% -0.96% -1.29% -2.62% -2.73% -2.56% -2.70% -3.29% -3.03% -1.06%
Avg Days to Max Decline   10 12 11 5 8 8 7 14 5 7 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes       Yes Yes Yes    
Action   No   No       Yes Yes Yes    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   36 36 37 39 39 39 39 39 40 40 40
Closed Lower   22 16 21 21 20 20 22 17 26 18 17
Penetrated Low   16 11 17 17 17 16 15 14 18 14 10
Scenario Percentage   73% 69% 81% 81% 85% 80% 68% 82% 69% 78% 59%
Avg Max Decline   3.07% 3.79% 3.42% 2.54% 3.17% 3.63% 4.17% 4.36% 2.86% 2.78% 2.12%
Max Decline   7.95% 7.52% 7.14% 4.83% 8.06% 7.93% 9.26% 8.53% 8.15% 7.30% 5.03%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 23 20 17 15 21 20 18 13 10 10
Avg Max Increase   -0.35% -0.70% -0.64% -1.17% -0.45% -0.89% -0.59% -0.73% -1.12% -1.01% -0.48%
Max Increase   -3.26% -2.15% -2.97% -3.45% -2.76% -3.21% -1.87% -2.09% -2.96% -2.54% -1.08%
Avg Days to Max Increase   4 9 7 13 5 10 7 4 6 6 3
2025 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes Yes Yes       Yes Yes
Action     Yes   Yes Yes No       Yes Yes
High 103.190 105.020 104.537 104.985 104.848 103.470 101.235 104.090 107.680 108.380 110.015 109.750
Low 101.990 102.815 103.122 103.000 102.723 99.765 99.660 100.195 102.980 105.035 106.775 106.035
Close/Last 103.190 105.020 103.548 104.815 103.125 100.925 100.283 103.503 105.473 108.295 108.217 107.558

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