MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March US Dollar Index(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	18	18	19	21	21	21	21	21	22	22	22
Closed Higher	7	8	10	12	8	8	8	10	8	13	10
Exceeded High	6	7	10	8	4	8	5	8	8	9	8
Scenario Percentage	86%	88%	100%	67%	50%	100%	62%	80%	100%	69%	80%
Avg Max Increase	3.37%	2.65%	2.81%	2.10%	2.96%	3.43%	3.18%	3.19%	3.35%	2.83%	2.29%
Max Increase	7.67%	8.24%	6.47%	6.76%	5.93%	10.57%	5.20%	6.61%	8.96%	4.71%	5.75%
Avg Days To Max Increase	20	10	12	14	18	19	20	18	12	8	10
Avg Max Decline	-0.75%	-0.86%	-0.29%	-0.55%	-0.73%	-0.66%	-0.58%	-1.19%	-0.81%	-1.37%	-0.38%
Max Decline	-1.59%	-1.69%	-0.88%	-1.29%	-1.37%	-2.25%	-1.22%	-2.70%	-3.29%	-3.03%	-1.06%
Avg Days to Max Decline	6	7	7	4	6	6	11	16	6	8	3
2007 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	No		Yes			Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	18	18	19	21	21	21	21	21	22	22	22
Closed Lower	11	10	9	9	13	13	13	11	14	9	11
Penetrated Low	9	7	8	8	12	12	9	10	10	6	7
Scenario Percentage	82%	70%	89%	89%	92%	92%	69%	91%	71%	67%	64%
Avg Max Decline	3.51%	4.25%	3.82%	2.70%	3.58%	3.81%	5.08%	4.67%	3.42%	3.80%	5.66%
Max Decline	7.95%	7.52%	7.14%	4.83%	8.06%	7.93%	9.26%	8.53%	8.15%	7.30%	13.60%
Avg Days To Max Decline	15	21	17	15	15	22	20	17	14	11	15
Avg Max Increase	-0.03%	-0.55%	-0.29%	-1.12%	-0.47%	-0.96%	-0.36%	-0.81%	-1.00%	-0.87%	-0.59%
Max Increase	-1.28%	-1.04%	-1.52%	-3.45%	-2.76%	-3.21%	-1.50%	-2.09%	-1.68%	-1.53%	-1.21%
Avg Days to Max Increase	3	6	5	12	6	11	6	4	5	5	2
2007 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes
Action	Yes	No			No		Yes	Yes			Yes
High	88.410	84.760	85.730	86.010	84.750	85.500	86.780	85.370	83.930	85.250	85.090
Low	84.860	82.750	83.010	83.920	83.600	84.180	84.700	82.400	81.900	82.900	83.320
Close/Last	84.860	83.700	84.180	84.370	84.310	85.390	84.800	82.540	83.430	84.430	83.500