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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for DJIA Index as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   31 28 23 31 25 18 27 33 30 27 28
Exceeded High   29 24 21 25 21 17 25 30 28 23 25
Scenario Percentage   94% 86% 91% 81% 84% 94% 93% 91% 93% 85% 89%
Avg Max Increase   4.50% 5.10% 5.31% 4.04% 4.36% 6.23% 5.92% 4.92% 5.73% 5.61% 4.03%
Max Increase   13.28% 12.99% 13.15% 10.49% 16.09% 19.66% 13.83% 15.46% 11.62% 17.19% 7.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 21 16 16 15 20 21 18 19 16 18
Avg Max Decline   -1.76% -1.80% -1.39% -1.83% -2.17% -1.57% -1.99% -2.01% -1.76% -0.95% -0.85%
Max Decline   -7.19% -4.86% -4.42% -5.74% -7.27% -4.75% -7.49% -9.87% -6.68% -3.68% -2.17%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 14 11 10 12 8 12 10 11 7 4
2025 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes   Yes  
Action     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes   No  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   14 17 22 14 20 27 17 12 15 18 17
Penetrated Low   7 12 15 12 16 18 7 5 10 11 13
Scenario Percentage   50% 71% 68% 86% 80% 67% 41% 42% 67% 61% 76%
Avg Max Decline   5.03% 6.33% 6.41% 7.67% 6.81% 7.89% 6.32% 5.27% 8.02% 9.79% 7.17%
Max Decline   10.25% 24.10% 18.50% 16.68% 18.97% 37.75% 20.12% 12.99% 19.85% 35.54% 28.32%
Avg Days To Max Decline   13 13 16 17 14 17 12 14 17 10 13
Avg Max Increase   -1.94% -1.19% -1.98% -2.44% -2.66% -2.62% -3.08% -2.69% -1.96% -1.52% -1.80%
Max Increase   -4.09% -4.51% -4.57% -8.56% -7.37% -6.02% -9.20% -7.16% -6.32% -4.65% -6.64%
Avg Days to Max Increase   5 7 11 9 12 8 5 10 6 4 5
2025 Contract Condition   Yes           Yes   Yes   Yes
Action   No           Yes   Yes   Yes
High 39889 39815 40077 39571 41376 41578 42628 43325 45071 45074 45054 44963
Low 38458 37612 37795 38247 39038 38499 39994 41705 41647 42173 41864 43101
Close/Last 39807 37816 38686 39119 40843 41563 42330 41763 44911 42544 44545 43841

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