MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for DJIA Index as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		27	26	29	31	26	24	29	25	18	25	33
Exceeded High		25	25	26	28	23	21	23	21	16	23	24
Scenario Percentage		93%	96%	90%	90%	88%	88%	79%	84%	89%	92%	73%
Avg Max Increase		5.54%	5.14%	6.18%	4.66%	5.13%	5.20%	4.47%	4.40%	6.22%	6.02%	3.10%
Max Increase		17.19%	10.33%	14.40%	13.28%	12.99%	13.15%	10.49%	16.09%	19.66%	13.83%	6.35%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	16	18	13	20	16	16	14	20	21	20
Avg Max Decline		-1.20%	-1.31%	-1.59%	-1.75%	-1.70%	-1.45%	-1.72%	-1.95%	-1.56%	-1.81%	-1.28%
Max Decline		-4.41%	-5.49%	-5.55%	-7.19%	-4.86%	-4.42%	-5.45%	-7.27%	-4.75%	-7.49%	-4.81%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	9	9	7	13	10	10	11	6	12	5
2020 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		18	19	16	14	19	21	16	20	27	19	12
Penetrated Low		12	15	10	8	14	16	14	16	19	9	3
Scenario Percentage		67%	79%	63%	57%	74%	76%	88%	80%	70%	47%	25%
Avg Max Decline		9.01%	7.26%	3.02%	4.32%	5.75%	6.15%	7.28%	6.61%	8.66%	5.94%	3.16%
Max Decline		35.54%	28.32%	4.89%	10.25%	24.10%	18.50%	16.68%	18.97%	37.75%	20.12%	4.85%
Avg Days To Max Decline		10	10	13	14	14	15	19	14	17	13	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.57%	-1.88%	-1.81%	-1.58%	-1.49%	-1.86%	-2.32%	-2.89%	-2.55%	-3.01%	-1.08%
Max Increase		-4.65%	-6.64%	-6.39%	-4.09%	-4.51%	-4.57%	-8.56%	-7.37%	-5.90%	-9.20%	-1.64%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	6	8	6	8	11	9	12	8	4	2
2020 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes						Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No						Yes	No
High	28702	29374	29569	27096	24765	25759	27580	27071	28733	29199	28958	30117
Low	27325	28170	24681	18214	20735	22790	24843	25526	26534	26537	26144	26691
Close/Last	28538	28256	25409	21917	24346	25383	25813	26428	28430	27782	26502	29639