MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for DJIA Index as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		28	27	30	29	24	21	25	25	16	27	30
Exceeded High		27	26	27	26	20	18	20	20	14	24	21
Scenario Percentage		96%	96%	90%	90%	83%	86%	80%	80%	88%	89%	70%
Avg Max Increase		5.85%	5.67%	6.59%	4.56%	5.12%	4.89%	4.38%	4.25%	6.41%	5.94%	3.06%
Max Increase		17.19%	12.99%	14.40%	11.78%	12.99%	13.15%	8.35%	16.09%	19.66%	13.83%	6.35%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	17	19	15	20	16	17	14	21	19	19
Avg Max Decline		-1.46%	-1.32%	-1.79%	-1.40%	-1.76%	-1.72%	-2.22%	-2.23%	-1.58%	-1.92%	-1.28%
Max Decline		-7.01%	-5.49%	-5.55%	-5.22%	-4.86%	-4.42%	-8.64%	-7.27%	-4.75%	-7.49%	-4.81%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	9	10	6	13	10	11	12	6	11	5
2015 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes	No		No			Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		17	18	15	16	21	23	20	20	29	17	15
Penetrated Low		12	14	10	10	16	19	17	16	21	8	5
Scenario Percentage		71%	78%	67%	63%	76%	83%	85%	80%	72%	47%	33%
Avg Max Decline		6.78%	5.62%	4.05%	4.65%	6.03%	5.95%	7.71%	7.43%	8.49%	5.52%	4.40%
Max Decline		19.14%	14.52%	7.99%	10.25%	24.10%	18.50%	20.87%	18.97%	37.75%	20.12%	7.92%
Avg Days To Max Decline		10	11	16	16	15	15	19	13	16	13	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.36%	-1.65%	-2.29%	-2.13%	-2.16%	-2.13%	-2.41%	-2.90%	-2.34%	-3.02%	-0.53%
Max Increase		-3.92%	-4.03%	-6.39%	-4.78%	-7.98%	-5.83%	-8.56%	-7.37%	-5.90%	-9.20%	-1.64%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	6	10	6	8	11	9	12	6	4	2
2015 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		No			Yes		No	No
High	18103	17952	18244	18289	18176	18351	18189	18137	17705	16933	17800	17978
Low	17068	17136	17038	17579	17585	17733	17577	17399	15370	15942	16014	17210
Close/Last	17823	17165	18133	17776	17841	18011	17620	17690	16528	16285	17664	17720