MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for DJIA Index as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		28	25	30	28	21	20	24	27	16	26	29
Exceeded High		26	24	26	25	18	17	20	22	14	23	21
Scenario Percentage		93%	96%	87%	89%	86%	85%	83%	81%	88%	88%	72%
Avg Max Increase		5.87%	5.92%	6.69%	4.55%	5.35%	5.06%	4.61%	4.50%	6.33%	5.94%	3.23%
Max Increase		17.19%	12.99%	14.40%	11.78%	12.99%	13.15%	8.35%	16.09%	19.66%	13.83%	6.80%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	18	19	13	19	15	17	14	21	18	18
Avg Max Decline		-1.50%	-1.43%	-1.82%	-1.40%	-1.73%	-1.65%	-2.20%	-2.08%	-1.41%	-2.06%	-1.05%
Max Decline		-7.01%	-5.49%	-5.55%	-5.22%	-4.86%	-4.42%	-8.64%	-6.47%	-4.75%	-7.49%	-4.81%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	10	11	5	13	9	10	11	6	9	4
2012 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		17	20	15	17	24	24	21	18	29	18	16
Penetrated Low		11	15	10	11	18	21	17	15	21	8	6
Scenario Percentage		65%	75%	67%	65%	75%	88%	81%	83%	72%	44%	38%
Avg Max Decline		7.51%	5.46%	4.05%	5.57%	6.38%	5.55%	7.76%	7.89%	8.27%	5.52%	4.65%
Max Decline		19.14%	14.52%	7.99%	14.81%	24.10%	18.50%	20.87%	18.97%	37.75%	20.12%	7.92%
Avg Days To Max Decline		12	12	16	17	17	15	19	14	15	13	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.54%	-1.61%	-2.29%	-2.00%	-2.14%	-2.18%	-2.46%	-2.69%	-2.37%	-3.02%	-0.52%
Max Increase		-3.92%	-4.03%	-6.39%	-4.78%	-7.98%	-5.83%	-8.56%	-7.37%	-5.90%	-9.20%	-1.64%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	6	10	6	10	10	8	12	6	4	2
2012 Contract Condition						Yes					Yes	Yes
Action						Yes					Yes	Not Yet
High	12328	12842	13056	13289	13297	13339	12899	13129	13331	13653	13662	13291
Low	11735	12221	12633	12735	12711	12312	12035	12492	12779	12977	13040	12471
Close/Last	12218	12633	12952	13212	13214	12393	12880	13009	13091	13437	13096	13026