MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for DJIA Index as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	29	22	28	28	21	20	24	27	16	26	28
Exceeded High	26	21	24	25	18	17	20	22	13	23	20
Scenario Percentage	90%	95%	86%	89%	86%	85%	83%	81%	81%	88%	71%
Avg Max Increase	5.70%	5.99%	7.11%	4.68%	5.35%	5.35%	4.76%	4.68%	6.54%	5.78%	3.27%
Max Increase	17.19%	12.99%	14.40%	11.78%	12.99%	13.15%	8.35%	16.09%	19.66%	13.83%	6.80%
Avg Days To Max Increase	16	18	19	14	19	14	17	15	22	17	18
Avg Max Decline	-1.62%	-1.27%	-1.86%	-1.45%	-1.73%	-1.52%	-1.98%	-2.07%	-1.53%	-2.01%	-0.98%
Max Decline	-7.01%	-3.24%	-5.55%	-5.22%	-4.86%	-4.42%	-8.64%	-6.47%	-4.75%	-7.49%	-4.81%
Avg Days to Max Decline	9	11	11	5	13	8	10	11	6	10	3
2009 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	16	22	17	17	24	24	21	18	29	18	17
Penetrated Low	10	16	11	11	18	20	17	16	21	8	14
Scenario Percentage	62%	73%	65%	65%	75%	83%	81%	89%	72%	44%	82%
Avg Max Decline	8.03%	5.43%	4.33%	5.57%	6.49%	5.65%	7.62%	7.33%	8.28%	5.51%	12.60%
Max Decline	19.14%	14.52%	7.99%	14.81%	24.10%	18.50%	20.87%	18.97%	37.75%	20.12%	39.81%
Avg Days To Max Decline	13	12	16	17	19	17	20	15	16	14	13
Avg Max Increase	-1.44%	-1.53%	-2.44%	-2.00%	-2.20%	-2.32%	-2.49%	-3.10%	-2.36%	-2.85%	-4.00%
Max Increase	-3.92%	-4.03%	-6.39%	-4.78%	-7.98%	-5.83%	-8.56%	-7.37%	-5.90%	-9.20%	-9.60%
Avg Days to Max Increase	8	6	11	6	9	11	9	13	6	4	17
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action	Yes	Yes				Yes
High	9088	8315	7931	8308	8592	8878	9246	9630	9918	10119	10496
Low	7909	7034	6470	7484	8099	8259	8087	9117	9253	9430	9679
Close/Last	8001	7063	7609	8168	8500	8447	9172	9496	9712	9713	10345