MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for DJIA Index as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	31	23	29	27	22	21	23	26	17	26	28
Exceeded High	28	22	25	24	19	18	19	22	14	23	19
Scenario Percentage	90%	96%	86%	89%	86%	86%	83%	85%	82%	88%	68%
Avg Max Increase	5.53%	5.90%	6.70%	4.49%	4.87%	5.21%	4.60%	4.62%	6.00%	5.49%	3.33%
Max Increase	17.19%	12.99%	14.40%	11.78%	12.99%	13.15%	8.35%	16.09%	19.66%	13.83%	6.80%
Avg Days To Max Increase	16	18	19	14	18	15	18	15	22	17	17
Avg Max Decline	-1.60%	-1.22%	-1.76%	-1.50%	-1.58%	-1.46%	-2.11%	-1.96%	-1.33%	-2.25%	-0.97%
Max Decline	-7.01%	-3.24%	-5.55%	-5.22%	-2.92%	-4.42%	-8.64%	-6.47%	-4.75%	-7.49%	-4.81%
Avg Days to Max Decline	9	10	12	5	11	8	10	11	7	11	3
2007 Contract Condition	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	14	21	16	18	23	23	22	19	28	18	17
Penetrated Low	9	15	11	12	17	19	17	16	20	8	14
Scenario Percentage	64%	71%	69%	67%	74%	83%	77%	84%	71%	44%	82%
Avg Max Decline	6.80%	4.84%	4.33%	5.25%	6.03%	5.65%	7.62%	7.33%	7.13%	3.32%	13.94%
Max Decline	11.05%	14.52%	7.99%	14.81%	24.10%	18.50%	20.87%	18.97%	37.75%	5.72%	39.81%
Avg Days To Max Decline	14	12	16	17	19	17	20	15	15	13	13
Avg Max Increase	-1.17%	-1.80%	-2.44%	-2.09%	-2.33%	-2.41%	-2.49%	-3.10%	-2.47%	-2.75%	-4.16%
Max Increase	-2.21%	-4.03%	-6.39%	-4.78%	-7.98%	-5.83%	-8.56%	-7.37%	-5.90%	-9.20%	-9.60%
Avg Days to Max Increase	8	6	11	6	10	12	9	13	7	6	19
2007 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes	Yes				Yes
Action		Yes				Yes	Yes				Yes
High	12657	12796	12511	13162	13673	13692	14022	13696	13925	14198	13924
Low	12337	12086	11940	12324	13041	13252	13200	12518	13022	13407	12724
Close/Last	12622	12269	12354	13063	13628	13409	13212	13358	13896	13930	13372