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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Corn(CBOT) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   24 23 25 21 20 16 16 21 18 24 16
Exceeded High   22 19 22 19 18 12 10 13 17 14 5
Scenario Percentage   92% 83% 88% 90% 90% 75% 63% 62% 94% 58% 31%
Avg Max Increase   7.09% 8.36% 8.59% 11.85% 9.93% 11.02% 12.11% 9.71% 11.65% 6.28% 3.52%
Max Increase   20.49% 25.97% 33.61% 62.47% 50.71% 33.75% 29.99% 33.86% 44.00% 17.85% 6.05%
Avg Days To Max Increase   19 13 15 16 11 13 15 15 17 13 7
Avg Max Decline   -1.60% -3.10% -1.88% -3.93% -3.07% -1.46% -2.48% -3.09% -3.18% -2.14% -0.78%
Max Decline   -7.86% -10.22% -10.38% -8.15% -6.10% -8.70% -7.19% -11.79% -10.19% -7.38% -1.33%
Avg Days to Max Decline   13 10 12 11 7 7 5 13 8 4 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes              
Action   Yes     No              
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 22 20 24 25 29 29 24 27 20 29
Penetrated Low   20 17 19 23 23 27 24 18 22 18 17
Scenario Percentage   95% 77% 95% 96% 92% 93% 83% 75% 81% 90% 59%
Avg Max Decline   5.40% 5.66% 6.61% 8.20% 10.79% 10.65% 8.49% 7.63% 7.48% 7.10% 4.04%
Max Decline   11.65% 13.66% 13.37% 18.00% 24.31% 17.31% 20.08% 37.78% 30.97% 27.77% 17.02%
Avg Days To Max Decline   21 17 17 22 21 17 18 16 21 11 7
Avg Max Increase   -2.04% -2.44% -2.85% -3.98% -5.72% -3.25% -3.43% -1.27% -2.24% -1.97% -1.05%
Max Increase   -6.33% -7.38% -7.08% -19.34% -27.57% -17.80% -11.02% -4.37% -6.87% -5.11% -3.20%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 15 9 13 12 7 11 4 10 5 2
2025 Contract Condition     Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes        
Action     Yes Yes   Yes Yes          
High 444.50 467.25 479.75 457.75 469.50 456.50 450.50 442.25        
Low 428.00 439.00 454.25 436.50 439.75 434.50 419.25 411.50        
Close/Last 443.75 460.25 455.00 442.00 446.25 438.50 425.50 412.25        

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