MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Corn(CBOT) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		25	25	24	21	23	17	14	21	17	23	17
Exceeded High		23	19	21	19	20	13	9	13	16	14	5
Scenario Percentage		92%	76%	88%	90%	87%	76%	64%	62%	94%	61%	29%
Avg Max Increase		6.04%	6.74%	7.29%	12.77%	10.42%	10.79%	12.03%	9.50%	12.49%	7.03%	3.77%
Max Increase		17.52%	15.57%	20.11%	62.47%	50.71%	33.75%	29.99%	33.86%	44.00%	17.85%	9.75%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	12	16	17	11	12	15	15	18	13	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.51%	-3.01%	-2.13%	-3.69%	-2.83%	-1.31%	-2.18%	-3.33%	-2.67%	-1.88%	-0.81%
Max Decline		-7.86%	-10.22%	-10.38%	-8.15%	-6.10%	-8.70%	-7.19%	-11.79%	-10.19%	-7.38%	-1.33%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	9	14	12	7	6	5	13	7	3	2
2020 Contract Condition						Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action						Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	20	21	24	22	28	31	24	28	21	28
Penetrated Low		19	16	20	23	21	26	26	16	23	20	19
Scenario Percentage		95%	80%	95%	96%	95%	93%	84%	67%	82%	95%	68%
Avg Max Decline		4.94%	5.48%	6.01%	7.94%	10.70%	11.48%	8.10%	8.02%	7.89%	7.21%	4.17%
Max Decline		11.65%	13.66%	10.56%	18.00%	24.31%	17.55%	20.08%	37.78%	30.97%	27.77%	17.02%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	16	16	21	21	17	17	16	20	10	8
Avg Max Increase		-2.08%	-2.52%	-2.90%	-3.67%	-5.00%	-2.58%	-3.03%	-1.25%	-2.23%	-1.81%	-1.08%
Max Increase		-6.33%	-7.38%	-7.08%	-19.34%	-27.57%	-17.80%	-11.02%	-4.37%	-5.13%	-5.11%	-3.20%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	14	10	12	11	6	10	4	10	5	2
2020 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
High	404.50	404.75	394.00	386.75	358.75	342.50	354.25	363.00	364.25	382.75	422.25	430.50
Low	387.75	389.50	375.00	353.25	325.50	330.00	322.00	325.50	320.00	351.00	377.25	393.00
Close/Last	402.50	390.75	377.00	357.50	337.25	338.75	350.50	327.00	357.75	379.00	398.50	419.75