MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Corn(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	39	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	21	25	27	20	22	19	15	22	16	20	22
Exceeded High	20	19	23	17	17	13	11	14	13	11	8
Scenario Percentage	95%	76%	85%	85%	77%	68%	73%	64%	81%	55%	36%
Avg Max Increase	7.13%	6.70%	7.90%	15.45%	14.00%	12.34%	11.82%	6.33%	12.72%	7.66%	5.67%
Max Increase	19.16%	15.57%	37.39%	62.47%	50.71%	37.37%	25.90%	13.70%	44.00%	17.85%	17.37%
Avg Days To Max Increase	20	14	16	18	14	13	15	14	19	13	8
Avg Max Decline	-1.27%	-2.41%	-1.72%	-2.43%	-2.66%	-1.28%	-2.98%	-3.24%	-3.21%	-1.66%	-0.26%
Max Decline	-3.29%	-9.24%	-10.38%	-6.87%	-6.10%	-6.27%	-12.19%	-11.79%	-10.19%	-7.38%	-1.33%
Avg Days to Max Decline	11	9	13	12	6	6	7	14	10	4	1
2009 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes				Yes	Not Yet	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	39	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	18	20	18	25	23	26	30	23	29	24	23
Penetrated Low	18	15	16	24	20	22	24	17	23	19	16
Scenario Percentage	100%	75%	89%	96%	87%	85%	80%	74%	79%	79%	70%
Avg Max Decline	4.93%	4.45%	6.58%	8.29%	9.77%	11.17%	7.44%	7.20%	7.68%	7.64%	12.41%
Max Decline	17.02%	10.02%	12.32%	18.00%	24.31%	17.55%	20.08%	37.78%	30.97%	27.77%	62.48%
Avg Days To Max Decline	15	16	15	21	23	18	17	15	21	12	10
Avg Max Increase	-1.55%	-2.28%	-2.92%	-3.33%	-5.46%	-2.58%	-2.47%	-1.18%	-2.32%	-2.00%	-1.43%
Max Increase	-5.97%	-7.38%	-7.08%	-19.34%	-27.57%	-17.80%	-11.02%	-4.37%	-5.13%	-5.11%	-3.20%
Avg Days to Max Increase	10	11	11	11	12	6	10	6	11	5	3
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	471.75	427.00	436.75	438.00	460.00	473.50	373.75	376.00	347.75	413.50	409.50
Low	404.00	382.00	375.50	390.50	416.75	367.25	314.75	311.50	302.00	327.50	359.25
Close/Last	425.00	391.00	435.75	423.25	459.25	367.25	349.50	329.75	344.00	366.00	402.75