MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Corn(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	37	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	20	26	25	19	22	19	15	24	16	19	22
Exceeded High	19	19	21	16	17	14	11	16	12	11	9
Scenario Percentage	95%	73%	84%	84%	77%	74%	73%	67%	75%	58%	41%
Avg Max Increase	6.63%	6.11%	7.78%	14.72%	14.29%	11.93%	11.82%	6.35%	12.09%	7.44%	4.70%
Max Increase	19.16%	15.57%	37.39%	62.47%	50.71%	37.37%	25.90%	13.70%	44.00%	17.85%	17.37%
Avg Days To Max Increase	20	13	16	18	14	12	15	15	18	13	8
Avg Max Decline	-1.31%	-1.94%	-1.32%	-2.29%	-2.64%	-1.15%	-2.98%	-2.90%	-3.08%	-1.66%	-0.43%
Max Decline	-3.29%	-5.76%	-6.85%	-6.87%	-6.10%	-6.27%	-12.19%	-11.79%	-10.19%	-7.38%	-1.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline	11	8	13	11	7	6	7	13	10	4	1
2007 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes			Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	No			Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	37	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	17	19	20	26	23	26	30	21	29	25	23
Penetrated Low	17	14	18	24	20	22	23	15	23	19	16
Scenario Percentage	100%	74%	90%	92%	87%	85%	77%	71%	79%	76%	70%
Avg Max Decline	4.53%	4.49%	6.06%	7.83%	9.42%	10.62%	6.36%	5.08%	6.41%	6.21%	11.38%
Max Decline	17.02%	10.02%	12.32%	18.00%	24.31%	17.55%	13.47%	11.98%	13.59%	13.22%	62.48%
Avg Days To Max Decline	16	17	15	20	23	18	17	14	21	11	9
Avg Max Increase	-1.61%	-2.40%	-2.62%	-2.87%	-4.17%	-2.47%	-2.13%	-1.41%	-2.31%	-1.85%	-1.35%
Max Increase	-5.97%	-7.38%	-7.08%	-19.34%	-18.17%	-17.80%	-11.02%	-4.37%	-5.13%	-4.64%	-3.20%
Avg Days to Max Increase	10	11	11	11	11	4	9	5	11	5	3
2007 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		Yes	No	No
High	407.00	429.50	422.75	406.00	401.00	435.00	371.00	372.00	389.50	380.00	394.00
Low	354.50	388.50	383.50	358.00	354.50	343.75	324.50	326.50	335.50	335.00	366.50
Close/Last	394.75	420.00	383.50	364.50	384.75	350.75	342.25	340.00	373.00	375.50	384.50