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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Corn(CBOT) as of Jul 16, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   26 17 25 24 24 26 18 20 15 15 20
Exceeded High   15 10 19 22 20 24 15 17 10 8 11
Scenario Percentage   58% 59% 76% 92% 83% 92% 83% 85% 67% 53% 55%
Avg Max Increase   7.04% 9.62% 8.66% 7.87% 8.30% 8.55% 8.74% 10.02% 13.74% 10.75% 4.28%
Max Increase   14.84% 26.38% 20.32% 20.88% 25.94% 32.26% 25.29% 56.06% 34.25% 18.52% 10.02%
Avg Days To Max Increase   23 15 18 20 14 14 15 14 12 10 7
Avg Max Decline   -1.97% -2.77% -1.53% -1.28% -2.94% -2.33% -3.73% -3.04% -0.58% -1.15% -1.24%
Max Decline   -10.94% -7.80% -6.73% -3.26% -10.61% -10.55% -10.89% -5.50% -5.47% -3.01% -2.78%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 9 6 9 9 12 13 10 4 3 2
2025 Contract Condition       Yes Yes     Yes        
Action       Yes Yes     No        
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   19 28 19 21 21 19 27 25 30 30 25
Penetrated Low   16 19 16 21 16 19 25 24 27 24 10
Scenario Percentage   84% 68% 84% 100% 76% 100% 93% 96% 90% 80% 40%
Avg Max Decline   5.58% 5.68% 4.86% 5.94% 5.74% 7.00% 8.60% 11.55% 12.51% 8.24% 4.87%
Max Decline   25.43% 15.90% 14.00% 11.78% 15.44% 15.76% 18.83% 27.77% 19.17% 17.40% 9.04%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 13 18 18 15 16 21 21 16 11 7
Avg Max Increase   -1.61% -1.69% -1.37% -1.89% -2.63% -2.33% -3.90% -5.66% -3.48% -2.41% -0.53%
Max Increase   -6.50% -6.05% -3.85% -6.44% -9.03% -5.43% -19.29% -27.18% -18.45% -8.17% -2.10%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 9 6 12 12 7 12 11 6 6 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes     Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes  
Action   Yes No     Yes Yes   Yes Yes    
High 452.50 456.00 447.00 443.00 470.25 482.75 454.25 461.75 444.25 434.75 426.25  
Low 431.25 426.00 424.00 424.75 436.75 449.75 429.25 431.50 420.75 402.25 391.25  
Close/Last 449.50 435.25 428.00 442.50 460.25 450.25 434.75 437.00 423.25 409.25 405.25  

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