MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Corn(CBOT) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		25	17	24	25	25	26	18	22	16	14	20
Exceeded High		15	10	19	22	20	24	15	18	11	8	10
Scenario Percentage		60%	59%	79%	88%	80%	92%	83%	82%	69%	57%	50%
Avg Max Increase		6.97%	9.62%	7.93%	7.10%	7.32%	8.48%	9.91%	10.53%	13.21%	10.95%	4.47%
Max Increase		14.84%	26.38%	20.32%	16.18%	25.94%	32.26%	25.29%	56.06%	34.25%	20.11%	11.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase		21	15	18	20	14	14	15	14	12	10	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.81%	-2.77%	-1.52%	-1.25%	-3.07%	-2.39%	-3.51%	-2.90%	-0.45%	-1.15%	-1.09%
Max Decline		-10.94%	-7.80%	-6.73%	-3.26%	-10.61%	-10.55%	-10.89%	-5.50%	-5.47%	-3.01%	-2.19%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	9	6	9	10	12	13	9	4	3	2
2021 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	28	20	20	20	19	27	23	29	31	25
Penetrated Low		17	19	16	20	15	19	24	22	26	26	14
Scenario Percentage		85%	68%	80%	100%	75%	100%	89%	96%	90%	84%	56%
Avg Max Decline		5.72%	5.40%	4.17%	5.43%	5.43%	6.55%	8.60%	11.51%	13.28%	8.26%	5.11%
Max Decline		25.43%	15.90%	14.00%	11.78%	15.44%	11.23%	18.83%	27.77%	19.93%	17.40%	9.09%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	11	16	18	15	17	21	21	15	11	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.54%	-1.60%	-1.38%	-2.00%	-2.76%	-2.47%	-3.72%	-4.98%	-2.81%	-2.55%	-1.04%
Max Increase		-6.50%	-6.05%	-3.85%	-6.44%	-9.03%	-5.43%	-19.29%	-27.18%	-18.45%	-8.17%	-3.60%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	7	6	13	13	7	11	10	6	7	3
2021 Contract Condition		Yes							Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		No							Yes		Yes	Yes
High	392.25	402.75	419.50	448.25	489.00	498.00	504.25	616.50	656.00	649.25	626.00	589.50
Low	370.25	380.50	383.75	404.50	443.25	463.75	467.50	495.25	525.00	528.00	520.75	524.00
Close/Last	388.25	387.25	411.00	446.50	470.25	489.50	496.00	592.25	573.25	599.25	547.00	534.00