MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Corn(CBOT) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		26	16	22	25	25	26	18	22	15	15	21
Exceeded High		15	9	18	22	19	24	15	18	11	9	10
Scenario Percentage		58%	56%	82%	88%	76%	92%	83%	82%	73%	60%	48%
Avg Max Increase		6.97%	8.58%	7.73%	6.97%	6.34%	7.16%	10.12%	10.62%	13.52%	11.25%	4.52%
Max Increase		14.84%	26.38%	20.32%	16.18%	17.33%	29.59%	25.29%	56.06%	34.25%	18.52%	10.02%
Avg Days To Max Increase		21	15	17	21	13	14	15	14	12	11	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.81%	-2.90%	-1.56%	-1.21%	-2.99%	-2.46%	-3.45%	-2.70%	-0.43%	-1.04%	-0.89%
Max Decline		-10.94%	-7.80%	-6.73%	-3.26%	-10.61%	-10.55%	-10.89%	-5.50%	-5.47%	-3.01%	-2.19%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	10	7	9	9	12	13	8	3	3	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes
Action		No	No		No				Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		18	29	22	20	20	19	27	23	30	30	24
Penetrated Low		16	21	17	20	15	19	25	22	26	25	9
Scenario Percentage		89%	72%	77%	100%	75%	100%	93%	96%	87%	83%	38%
Avg Max Decline		5.80%	6.26%	5.13%	5.77%	4.66%	6.07%	8.66%	11.24%	13.28%	8.03%	4.45%
Max Decline		25.43%	22.45%	20.47%	17.92%	7.94%	11.23%	18.83%	27.77%	19.93%	17.40%	9.04%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	12	17	17	13	16	21	21	15	11	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.61%	-1.59%	-1.51%	-2.02%	-2.77%	-2.44%	-3.58%	-4.74%	-2.81%	-2.15%	-0.57%
Max Increase		-6.50%	-6.05%	-3.85%	-6.44%	-9.03%	-5.43%	-19.29%	-27.18%	-18.45%	-8.17%	-2.10%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	7	6	13	13	7	13	10	6	5	2
2019 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	394.25	403.25	403.25	401.75	401.25	399.50	396.00	383.75	447.25	468.75	460.00	417.00
Low	375.75	385.75	385.50	390.00	391.50	384.50	374.50	360.00	352.50	416.50	400.00	355.25
Close/Last	385.00	391.50	394.00	393.50	395.50	385.25	375.00	370.50	436.00	424.75	400.25	358.00