MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Corn(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		25	16	23	25	26	26	18	21	16	16	21
Exceeded High		15	10	19	23	19	24	15	17	12	9	10
Scenario Percentage		60%	63%	83%	92%	73%	92%	83%	81%	75%	56%	48%
Avg Max Increase		6.97%	9.14%	8.87%	7.35%	6.34%	7.16%	10.12%	10.81%	15.11%	11.25%	4.54%
Max Increase		14.84%	26.38%	29.46%	16.18%	17.33%	29.59%	25.29%	56.06%	34.25%	18.52%	10.02%
Avg Days To Max Increase		21	16	18	21	13	14	15	14	14	11	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.81%	-2.76%	-1.54%	-1.28%	-2.99%	-2.46%	-3.45%	-2.60%	-0.37%	-1.04%	-0.89%
Max Decline		-10.94%	-7.80%	-6.73%	-3.26%	-10.61%	-10.55%	-10.89%	-5.50%	-5.47%	-3.01%	-2.19%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	10	6	8	9	12	13	8	3	3	2
2018 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		19	29	21	20	19	19	27	24	29	29	24
Penetrated Low		16	21	16	20	14	19	25	22	25	24	11
Scenario Percentage		84%	72%	76%	100%	74%	100%	93%	92%	86%	83%	46%
Avg Max Decline		5.80%	6.26%	5.31%	5.77%	4.52%	6.38%	8.94%	11.24%	13.16%	7.74%	4.53%
Max Decline		25.43%	22.45%	20.47%	17.92%	7.94%	12.01%	18.83%	27.77%	19.93%	17.40%	9.04%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	12	16	17	13	15	21	21	15	11	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.61%	-1.59%	-1.48%	-2.02%	-2.77%	-2.63%	-3.49%	-4.74%	-2.59%	-2.07%	-1.06%
Max Increase		-6.50%	-6.05%	-3.85%	-6.44%	-9.03%	-5.91%	-19.29%	-27.18%	-18.45%	-8.17%	-3.60%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	7	6	13	12	9	13	10	5	5	2
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes		Not Yet
High	394.25	391.75	387.50	382.75	385.25	396.75	407.00	410.50	420.75	406.00	374.25	373.75
Low	379.00	380.25	372.25	370.50	369.75	379.25	384.00	387.75	400.00	348.25	337.25	340.25
Close/Last	390.00	382.75	378.50	374.75	384.50	395.00	403.25	407.50	403.25	359.50	372.25	351.00