MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Corn(CBOT) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		25	17	24	23	25	27	18	21	15	17	22
Exceeded High		16	11	18	21	19	25	15	17	11	11	11
Scenario Percentage		64%	65%	75%	91%	76%	93%	83%	81%	73%	65%	50%
Avg Max Increase		6.76%	9.33%	8.95%	7.55%	6.71%	8.43%	12.71%	12.75%	15.91%	11.97%	4.70%
Max Increase		14.84%	26.38%	29.46%	16.18%	17.33%	41.01%	42.10%	56.06%	34.25%	20.75%	11.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	15	18	22	13	14	14	15	14	11	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.83%	-2.48%	-1.63%	-1.32%	-2.88%	-2.18%	-3.35%	-2.68%	-0.43%	-1.55%	-0.78%
Max Decline		-10.94%	-7.80%	-6.73%	-3.26%	-10.61%	-10.55%	-10.89%	-5.50%	-5.47%	-6.60%	-2.19%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	9	6	9	8	12	13	8	3	3	2
2016 Contract Condition					Yes			Yes	Yes
Action					Yes			Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		19	28	20	22	20	18	27	24	30	28	23
Penetrated Low		15	19	15	22	15	18	25	22	24	23	13
Scenario Percentage		79%	68%	75%	100%	75%	100%	93%	92%	80%	82%	57%
Avg Max Decline		5.97%	6.72%	5.57%	5.44%	4.26%	6.58%	9.07%	10.71%	13.45%	7.72%	5.43%
Max Decline		25.43%	22.45%	20.47%	17.92%	7.94%	12.01%	18.83%	27.77%	19.93%	17.40%	10.31%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	12	17	15	12	15	21	22	15	10	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.63%	-1.69%	-1.52%	-1.95%	-2.61%	-2.67%	-3.25%	-4.72%	-2.67%	-2.30%	-1.10%
Max Increase		-6.50%	-6.05%	-3.85%	-6.44%	-9.03%	-5.91%	-19.29%	-27.18%	-18.45%	-8.17%	-3.60%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	7	6	12	11	9	12	10	5	6	2
2016 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	409.25	413.25	403.00	396.25	386.75	387.50	382.50	406.50	414.75	444.00	373.00	334.75
Low	380.00	392.25	379.50	374.00	366.00	367.00	356.75	355.75	370.00	360.25	326.75	301.00
Close/Last	404.00	401.50	387.25	375.25	386.00	367.25	360.50	391.75	406.75	365.50	334.50	301.50