MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Corn(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		24	19	24	21	24	26	18	22	16	17	23
Exceeded High		15	11	19	19	19	24	16	17	11	11	11
Scenario Percentage		63%	58%	79%	90%	79%	92%	89%	77%	69%	65%	48%
Avg Max Increase		6.83%	9.33%	8.60%	7.65%	6.46%	8.63%	11.95%	12.78%	16.98%	11.83%	4.55%
Max Increase		14.84%	26.38%	29.46%	16.18%	17.33%	41.01%	42.10%	56.06%	34.25%	20.75%	10.02%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	15	17	22	14	14	15	15	16	11	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.68%	-2.48%	-1.53%	-1.39%	-2.95%	-2.20%	-2.95%	-2.72%	-0.73%	-1.55%	-0.78%
Max Decline		-10.94%	-7.80%	-6.73%	-3.26%	-10.61%	-10.55%	-10.89%	-5.50%	-5.72%	-6.60%	-2.19%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	9	6	10	9	12	12	9	5	3	2
2013 Contract Condition		Yes						Yes	Yes
Action		No						Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		19	26	20	24	21	18	27	23	29	28	22
Penetrated Low		14	17	15	24	16	17	24	20	23	21	10
Scenario Percentage		74%	65%	75%	100%	76%	94%	89%	87%	79%	75%	45%
Avg Max Decline		5.71%	6.82%	5.54%	5.34%	4.48%	6.62%	9.22%	10.60%	12.77%	7.68%	5.19%
Max Decline		25.43%	22.45%	20.47%	17.92%	9.56%	12.01%	18.83%	27.77%	19.93%	17.40%	10.31%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	13	18	16	14	16	21	22	15	10	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.63%	-1.25%	-1.46%	-1.64%	-2.42%	-2.72%	-3.32%	-4.89%	-2.80%	-1.88%	-0.69%
Max Increase		-6.50%	-4.22%	-3.85%	-6.44%	-9.03%	-5.91%	-19.29%	-27.18%	-18.45%	-8.17%	-2.10%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	6	6	11	9	10	12	11	5	3	2
2013 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	699.00	677.00	669.75	668.50	627.25	620.00	606.25	596.75	601.00	610.50	563.50	522.75
Low	629.00	645.50	620.25	614.50	592.00	568.50	561.50	536.50	538.50	540.50	488.25	453.75
Close/Last	659.00	661.50	656.75	621.25	615.25	582.75	563.00	580.25	597.25	547.25	499.00	495.00