MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Corn(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	39	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	20	21	24	23	24	28	17	23	17	15	22
Exceeded High	12	12	18	20	19	26	14	17	11	9	10
Scenario Percentage	60%	57%	75%	87%	79%	93%	82%	74%	65%	60%	45%
Avg Max Increase	6.97%	9.22%	8.51%	7.06%	5.97%	7.70%	13.47%	13.52%	14.91%	11.10%	4.06%
Max Increase	14.84%	26.38%	29.46%	16.18%	17.33%	41.01%	42.10%	56.06%	32.50%	20.75%	10.02%
Avg Days To Max Increase	20	16	19	22	15	15	17	15	16	10	6
Avg Max Decline	-0.95%	-1.62%	-1.35%	-1.32%	-2.40%	-1.97%	-1.95%	-2.40%	-1.08%	-1.31%	-0.80%
Max Decline	-2.62%	-5.93%	-6.73%	-3.26%	-8.22%	-10.55%	-6.25%	-5.50%	-5.72%	-6.60%	-2.19%
Avg Days to Max Decline	8	8	6	11	10	10	12	7	6	3	2
2009 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes		Yes
Action			Yes			Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	39	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	19	24	20	22	21	16	28	22	28	30	23
Penetrated Low	14	16	15	22	16	15	25	20	23	23	15
Scenario Percentage	74%	67%	75%	100%	76%	94%	89%	91%	82%	77%	65%
Avg Max Decline	5.71%	6.63%	4.27%	4.90%	4.01%	6.86%	8.79%	10.20%	12.51%	7.22%	15.34%
Max Decline	25.43%	22.45%	20.47%	17.92%	9.56%	12.01%	18.83%	27.77%	19.93%	17.40%	57.91%
Avg Days To Max Decline	15	13	17	15	12	15	22	21	15	10	13
Avg Max Increase	-1.63%	-1.21%	-1.32%	-1.41%	-2.31%	-2.41%	-3.51%	-4.94%	-2.90%	-1.71%	-1.57%
Max Increase	-6.50%	-4.22%	-3.85%	-4.19%	-9.03%	-5.91%	-19.29%	-27.18%	-18.45%	-8.17%	-5.56%
Avg Days to Max Increase	8	6	7	9	7	9	13	10	5	4	4
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	549.75	470.50	451.50	457.75	413.50	425.00	426.25	446.75	460.00	361.00	365.00
Low	412.00	386.25	335.75	390.75	369.75	363.25	379.25	405.75	354.50	304.00	304.25
Close/Last	450.25	399.25	438.00	411.75	377.75	424.00	412.50	446.25	354.50	339.50	326.25