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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Cotton(ICE) as of Jul 17, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   24 18 25 21 31 22 24 26 25 21 23
Exceeded High   16 16 18 17 26 18 21 17 18 15 9
Scenario Percentage   67% 89% 72% 81% 84% 82% 88% 65% 72% 71% 39%
Avg Max Increase   11.57% 10.29% 7.23% 8.23% 11.67% 12.19% 7.10% 10.18% 8.49% 8.68% 3.18%
Max Increase   38.43% 44.56% 25.54% 22.09% 55.11% 35.33% 16.56% 35.75% 22.13% 19.49% 7.68%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 16 17 23 21 16 20 20 15 10 5
Avg Max Decline   -1.84% -1.87% -1.09% -1.96% -2.35% -2.13% -2.73% -2.66% -3.19% -2.50% -0.14%
Max Decline   -4.46% -4.87% -5.00% -6.60% -10.31% -6.34% -10.16% -8.74% -9.31% -7.63% -2.10%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 6 5 7 12 7 12 6 8 4 1
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes           Yes     Yes
Action   Yes Yes           Yes     Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 27 20 24 14 23 21 19 20 24 22
Penetrated Low   14 23 15 15 12 20 18 14 17 21 14
Scenario Percentage   67% 85% 75% 63% 86% 87% 86% 74% 85% 88% 64%
Avg Max Decline   8.15% 7.15% 6.43% 5.04% 7.21% 7.63% 7.35% 8.56% 12.02% 9.57% 5.10%
Max Decline   34.26% 37.42% 20.70% 8.80% 19.61% 29.40% 22.68% 19.89% 26.06% 31.87% 9.55%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 19 16 18 19 16 15 12 17 10 5
Avg Max Increase   -1.63% -2.78% -2.03% -1.70% -2.00% -2.33% -2.95% -2.98% -3.64% -2.43% -1.66%
Max Increase   -3.85% -6.19% -6.33% -4.99% -8.15% -8.91% -10.79% -12.95% -14.94% -6.27% -4.87%
Avg Days to Max Increase   10 13 6 10 15 11 11 8 13 7 2
2025 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes  
Action       Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   No Yes  
High 77.36 74.27 77.58 77.89 76.05 73.99 71.45 70.06 69.01 69.75 69.10 67.63
Low 71.94 70.26 71.51 74.51 70.97 69.64 68.13 66.31 63.80 62.05 64.51 63.59
Close/Last 72.88 73.55 77.07 74.75 73.93 70.50 68.23 66.39 67.99 66.02 65.06 66.28

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