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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Cotton(ICE) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   27 19 23 19 21 18 25 23 31 23 25
Exceeded High   20 15 17 16 14 13 18 17 27 16 16
Scenario Percentage   74% 79% 74% 84% 67% 72% 72% 74% 87% 70% 64%
Avg Max Increase   6.11% 8.38% 8.87% 9.16% 14.58% 12.92% 8.40% 10.12% 11.36% 9.63% 4.42%
Max Increase   20.21% 20.37% 28.56% 43.20% 47.88% 51.25% 32.10% 25.12% 45.72% 29.29% 16.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 16 17 18 17 19 18 20 18 10 3
Avg Max Decline   -2.54% -2.76% -1.87% -2.07% -2.11% -2.31% -1.84% -2.40% -2.80% -2.94% -0.46%
Max Decline   -9.75% -8.56% -10.52% -6.21% -5.29% -5.87% -7.74% -6.83% -11.97% -7.71% -7.38%
Avg Days to Max Decline   14 5 8 9 5 7 8 7 11 8 1
2025 Contract Condition           Yes Yes   Yes      
Action           Yes No   No      
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   17 26 22 26 24 27 20 22 14 21 20
Penetrated Low   15 23 21 21 15 24 16 15 10 18 5
Scenario Percentage   88% 88% 95% 81% 63% 89% 80% 68% 71% 86% 25%
Avg Max Decline   8.78% 7.53% 9.21% 7.82% 8.36% 7.38% 6.39% 5.29% 7.81% 5.45% 3.19%
Max Decline   23.97% 26.76% 19.28% 25.15% 35.57% 36.47% 19.16% 10.25% 17.31% 16.07% 4.67%
Avg Days To Max Decline   21 19 15 19 17 19 14 18 20 14 3
Avg Max Increase   -2.96% -2.83% -2.13% -1.71% -2.14% -3.45% -2.19% -2.27% -2.23% -2.59% 0.15%
Max Increase   -11.54% -11.40% -10.21% -7.07% -5.90% -6.59% -6.33% -5.68% -9.86% -10.20% -1.27%
Avg Days to Max Increase   15 10 9 5 12 14 6 11 15 7 1
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes   Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes   Yes Yes Yes
High 85.13 85.25 80.80 77.09 75.29 72.76 76.19 76.10 73.75 72.06 69.44 67.97
Low 81.91 78.19 75.35 71.48 69.40 67.90 69.28 71.61 68.40 67.48 65.70 63.88
Close/Last 84.76 78.49 76.79 74.36 70.67 71.65 75.36 71.83 71.93 68.40 65.88 63.88

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