MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for NASDAQ Composite Index as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		12	13	13	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Closed Higher		8	4	6	8	8	8	5	8	8	8	10
Exceeded High		5	4	5	7	8	6	5	7	8	6	7
Scenario Percentage		63%	100%	83%	88%	100%	75%	100%	88%	100%	75%	70%
Avg Max Increase		4.93%	9.90%	8.40%	8.95%	7.47%	9.76%	6.21%	7.86%	9.70%	17.79%	7.48%
Max Increase		13.67%	12.12%	19.09%	16.38%	18.33%	13.62%	10.30%	12.37%	26.34%	37.90%	22.62%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	22	25	18	20	19	14	18	20	20	15
Avg Max Decline		-0.77%	-2.93%	-1.93%	-1.96%	-1.23%	-1.29%	-2.55%	-1.48%	-4.16%	-0.98%	-1.21%
Max Decline		-2.86%	-6.30%	-5.34%	-8.01%	-2.29%	-3.68%	-5.42%	-3.92%	-20.66%	-2.80%	-3.71%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	6	8	12	6	2	6	14	10	4	3
2008 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		12	13	13	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Closed Lower		4	9	7	5	6	6	9	6	6	6	4
Penetrated Low		3	7	5	4	4	5	7	5	4	3	1
Scenario Percentage		75%	78%	71%	80%	67%	83%	78%	83%	67%	50%	25%
Avg Max Decline		8.88%	8.94%	11.78%	13.33%	11.58%	10.06%	12.91%	12.44%	19.71%	21.29%	11.93%
Max Decline		12.28%	24.74%	33.46%	21.19%	27.12%	19.10%	31.57%	23.17%	36.80%	32.10%	11.93%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	17	19	20	17	18	13	15	18	18	21
Avg Max Increase		-1.29%	-2.75%	-1.93%	-2.73%	-2.60%	-1.38%	-2.20%	-6.76%	-1.25%	-3.51%	-16.58%
Max Increase		-2.45%	-12.40%	-4.26%	-4.21%	-7.30%	-4.49%	-7.42%	-18.04%	-4.32%	-3.82%	-16.58%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	5	5	7	5	5	8	18	2	10	11
2008 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes				Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes				Yes			Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	2724.40	2609.60	2413.40	2341.10	2428.90	2533.70	2549.90	2329.70	2453.70	2349.20	2069.40	1780.10
Low	2574.50	2292.30	2271.50	2169.30	2275.80	2444.70	2293.00	2212.90	2285.60	1983.70	1505.90	1316.10
Close/Last	2652.30	2389.90	2271.50	2279.10	2412.80	2522.70	2293.00	2325.60	2367.50	2082.30	1721.00	1535.60