MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for NASDAQ Composite Index as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		11	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Closed Higher		8	4	6	7	7	8	4	7	8	8	10
Exceeded High		5	4	5	6	7	6	4	7	8	6	7
Scenario Percentage		63%	100%	83%	86%	100%	75%	100%	100%	100%	75%	70%
Avg Max Increase		4.93%	9.90%	8.40%	9.50%	8.38%	9.76%	6.38%	7.86%	9.70%	17.79%	7.48%
Max Increase		13.67%	12.12%	19.09%	16.38%	18.33%	13.62%	10.30%	12.37%	26.34%	37.90%	22.62%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	22	25	20	22	19	14	18	20	20	15
Avg Max Decline		-0.77%	-2.93%	-1.93%	-2.51%	-1.17%	-1.29%	-2.76%	-1.48%	-4.16%	-0.98%	-1.21%
Max Decline		-2.86%	-6.30%	-5.34%	-8.01%	-2.29%	-3.68%	-5.42%	-3.92%	-20.66%	-2.80%	-3.71%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	6	8	10	7	2	7	14	10	4	3
2007 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		11	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Closed Lower		3	8	6	5	6	5	9	6	5	5	3
Penetrated Low		2	6	5	4	4	4	7	5	3	2	1
Scenario Percentage		67%	75%	83%	80%	67%	80%	78%	83%	60%	40%	33%
Avg Max Decline		8.70%	9.27%	11.78%	13.33%	11.58%	11.71%	12.91%	12.44%	14.01%	20.18%	11.93%
Max Decline		12.28%	24.74%	33.46%	21.19%	27.12%	19.10%	31.57%	23.17%	31.31%	32.10%	11.93%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	18	19	20	17	19	13	15	17	18	21
Avg Max Increase		-1.44%	-3.63%	-1.93%	-2.73%	-2.60%	-1.59%	-2.20%	-6.76%	-1.87%	-3.55%	-16.58%
Max Increase		-2.45%	-12.40%	-4.26%	-4.21%	-7.30%	-4.49%	-7.42%	-18.04%	-4.32%	-3.82%	-16.58%
Avg Days to Max Increase		16	6	5	7	5	6	8	18	2	13	11
2007 Contract Condition			Yes				Yes	Yes				Yes
Action			Yes				Yes	Yes				Not Yet
High	2457.20	2502.80	2524.90	2456.20	2557.20	2604.50	2626.80	2720.00	2613.00	2709.60	2859.10	2825.20
Low	2401.20	2431.10	2407.90	2340.70	2422.30	2525.30	2544.90	2546.30	2451.10	2559.10	2725.20	2541.00
Close/Last	2415.30	2463.90	2416.10	2421.60	2525.10	2604.50	2603.20	2546.30	2596.40	2701.50	2859.10	2661.00