MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for NASDAQ Composite Index as of Jan 01, 2007
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		10	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Closed Higher		7	4	5	6	6	8	4	6	7	7	10
Exceeded High		4	4	4	5	6	6	4	6	7	6	7
Scenario Percentage		57%	100%	80%	83%	100%	75%	100%	100%	100%	86%	70%
Avg Max Increase		5.54%	9.90%	8.61%	10.59%	9.04%	9.76%	6.38%	7.48%	10.26%	17.79%	7.48%
Max Increase		13.67%	12.12%	19.09%	16.38%	18.33%	13.62%	10.30%	12.37%	26.34%	37.90%	22.62%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	22	24	20	23	19	14	16	18	20	15
Avg Max Decline		-0.82%	-2.93%	-2.42%	-3.01%	-0.98%	-1.29%	-2.76%	-1.49%	-4.88%	-0.98%	-1.21%
Max Decline		-2.86%	-6.30%	-5.34%	-8.01%	-1.77%	-3.68%	-5.42%	-3.92%	-20.66%	-2.80%	-3.71%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	6	10	10	7	2	7	15	9	4	3
2006 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		10	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Closed Lower		3	7	6	5	6	4	8	6	5	5	2
Penetrated Low		2	5	5	4	4	3	6	5	3	2	1
Scenario Percentage		67%	71%	83%	80%	67%	75%	75%	83%	60%	40%	50%
Avg Max Decline		8.70%	10.49%	11.78%	13.33%	11.58%	13.66%	14.44%	12.44%	14.01%	20.18%	11.93%
Max Decline		12.28%	24.74%	33.46%	21.19%	27.12%	19.10%	31.57%	23.17%	31.31%	32.10%	11.93%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	21	19	20	17	20	13	15	17	18	21
Avg Max Increase		-1.44%	-4.45%	-1.93%	-2.73%	-2.60%	-0.63%	-2.13%	-6.76%	-1.87%	-3.55%	-16.58%
Max Increase		-2.45%	-12.40%	-4.26%	-4.21%	-7.30%	-1.27%	-7.42%	-18.04%	-4.32%	-3.82%	-16.58%
Avg Days to Max Increase		16	7	5	7	5	2	8	18	2	13	11
2006 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			No		Yes	Yes	Yes	No
High	2273.40	2331.40	2310.60	2340.80	2370.90	2345.00	2219.90	2190.40	2185.70	2270.00	2379.10	2466.00
Low	2205.30	2243.70	2239.80	2249.70	2310.40	2158.80	2072.50	2020.40	2057.70	2155.30	2237.60	2330.80
Close/Last	2205.30	2305.80	2281.40	2339.80	2322.60	2178.90	2172.10	2091.50	2183.80	2258.40	2366.70	2431.80