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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Corn(CBOT) as of Jul 16, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   19 18 26 18 25 24 24 25 16 21 15
Exceeded High   11 17 16 11 21 22 19 24 11 16 12
Scenario Percentage   58% 94% 62% 61% 84% 92% 79% 96% 69% 76% 80%
Avg Max Increase   8.84% 9.81% 8.65% 11.77% 8.42% 7.99% 8.00% 8.11% 9.03% 11.50% 6.81%
Max Increase   30.68% 38.35% 18.35% 28.80% 19.55% 21.60% 26.54% 34.29% 24.95% 60.09% 18.07%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 15 23 17 16 18 12 14 19 11 9
Avg Max Decline   -2.59% -2.44% -2.33% -3.13% -2.01% -1.65% -3.35% -2.34% -5.47% -3.80% -1.68%
Max Decline   -9.08% -8.83% -11.93% -8.20% -8.20% -4.31% -16.09% -10.79% -12.89% -10.06% -13.96%
Avg Days to Max Decline   14 6 9 12 9 8 9 9 16 9 3
2025 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes Yes Yes     Yes    
Action     Yes   Yes Yes Yes     No    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   26 27 19 27 20 20 21 20 29 24 30
Penetrated Low   17 22 17 21 16 19 14 18 26 21 17
Scenario Percentage   65% 81% 89% 78% 80% 95% 67% 90% 90% 88% 57%
Avg Max Decline   7.05% 6.42% 6.28% 5.51% 4.95% 6.25% 6.49% 7.55% 8.79% 9.18% 5.98%
Max Decline   35.76% 29.27% 26.37% 16.28% 14.84% 13.49% 17.05% 13.95% 20.53% 22.44% 16.21%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 22 15 12 17 18 15 18 20 13 9
Avg Max Increase   -1.32% -2.39% -1.63% -1.56% -1.99% -2.13% -2.84% -2.33% -4.17% -2.80% -0.93%
Max Increase   -4.02% -10.86% -6.15% -6.87% -5.95% -6.56% -4.86% -7.39% -16.67% -9.22% -3.92%
Avg Days to Max Increase   5 13 9 8 10 12 15 10 14 6 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes       Yes Yes   Yes Yes
Action   No   No       Yes Yes   Yes Yes
High 457.00 443.25 458.50 465.75 457.00 469.25 509.25 521.50 483.25 497.50 480.00 451.00
Low 432.50 421.75 432.25 427.50 436.75 437.00 460.00 475.25 450.50 455.25 436.50 408.00
Close/Last 434.75 434.25 455.75 439.75 442.25 468.75 496.75 475.75 463.25 475.50 444.00 420.50

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