MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Corn(CBOT) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		19	19	26	19	24	25	25	25	17	22	17
Exceeded High		11	18	17	10	20	23	20	24	13	16	14
Scenario Percentage		58%	95%	65%	53%	83%	92%	80%	96%	76%	73%	82%
Avg Max Increase		8.90%	9.95%	8.37%	11.43%	8.28%	8.13%	7.86%	8.44%	9.40%	11.91%	7.00%
Max Increase		30.68%	38.35%	18.35%	28.80%	19.55%	21.60%	26.54%	34.29%	24.95%	60.09%	18.07%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	16	23	16	16	19	13	14	18	10	9
Avg Max Decline		-2.83%	-2.28%	-2.21%	-3.32%	-2.02%	-1.56%	-3.34%	-2.31%	-4.80%	-3.71%	-1.42%
Max Decline		-9.08%	-8.83%	-11.93%	-8.20%	-8.20%	-4.31%	-16.09%	-10.79%	-12.89%	-10.06%	-13.96%
Avg Days to Max Decline		14	6	9	13	9	9	9	9	15	9	3
2022 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		26	26	19	26	21	19	20	20	28	23	28
Penetrated Low		16	21	18	20	16	18	13	17	24	20	16
Scenario Percentage		62%	81%	95%	77%	76%	95%	65%	85%	86%	87%	57%
Avg Max Decline		7.35%	6.61%	6.05%	5.31%	4.19%	6.02%	6.52%	7.66%	8.72%	8.59%	6.36%
Max Decline		35.76%	29.27%	26.37%	16.28%	14.84%	13.49%	17.05%	13.95%	20.53%	22.44%	16.21%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	21	14	11	16	19	14	18	20	12	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.28%	-2.24%	-1.54%	-1.58%	-2.01%	-2.31%	-2.63%	-2.03%	-4.15%	-2.71%	-0.58%
Max Increase		-4.02%	-10.86%	-6.15%	-6.87%	-5.95%	-6.56%	-4.86%	-5.12%	-16.67%	-9.22%	-3.16%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	12	9	8	10	13	12	10	14	5	2
2022 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes						Yes	Yes
Action		Yes			No						Yes	Not Yet
High	617.00	602.50	559.25	580.25	601.25	618.25	634.25	709.50	753.00	824.50	813.75	800.00
Low	521.50	539.50	512.75	524.25	564.50	570.25	584.75	606.00	677.25	718.25	747.25	720.50
Close/Last	558.25	548.25	549.00	578.75	570.75	593.50	619.25	677.00	733.00	813.50	753.50	743.75