MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Corn(CBOT) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	17	23	18	22	24	26	24	16	22	16
Exceeded High		11	16	15	9	18	21	19	22	13	16	11
Scenario Percentage		55%	94%	65%	50%	82%	88%	73%	92%	81%	73%	69%
Avg Max Increase		8.42%	9.92%	7.81%	9.76%	7.38%	7.70%	7.12%	7.08%	9.75%	11.64%	7.21%
Max Increase		30.68%	38.35%	16.30%	28.80%	19.41%	16.78%	26.54%	30.33%	24.95%	60.09%	16.99%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	14	22	15	17	19	12	14	16	11	7
Avg Max Decline		-2.70%	-2.32%	-2.25%	-3.41%	-2.18%	-1.51%	-3.52%	-2.35%	-3.99%	-3.41%	-0.51%
Max Decline		-9.08%	-8.83%	-11.93%	-8.20%	-8.20%	-4.31%	-16.09%	-10.79%	-12.89%	-10.06%	-4.16%
Avg Days to Max Decline		14	5	10	14	9	9	10	9	13	6	2
2019 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes
Action				Yes	No		No				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		25	28	22	27	23	20	19	21	29	23	29
Penetrated Low		15	23	21	21	17	19	13	18	26	20	17
Scenario Percentage		60%	82%	95%	78%	74%	95%	68%	86%	90%	87%	59%
Avg Max Decline		7.54%	7.19%	6.89%	6.39%	5.29%	6.12%	5.50%	7.08%	8.82%	9.01%	5.64%
Max Decline		35.76%	29.27%	26.37%	22.48%	22.89%	18.80%	10.92%	13.95%	20.53%	21.00%	15.62%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	21	15	12	17	18	13	17	21	12	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.46%	-2.27%	-1.41%	-1.65%	-2.08%	-2.37%	-2.50%	-2.10%	-3.81%	-2.73%	-0.68%
Max Increase		-4.02%	-10.86%	-6.15%	-6.87%	-5.95%	-6.56%	-4.86%	-5.12%	-16.67%	-9.22%	-3.16%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	12	8	8	10	13	12	10	13	5	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	No			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Not Yet
High	409.25	410.50	394.00	402.25	403.25	401.25	399.50	397.25	390.00	375.25	438.00	464.25
Low	375.50	381.50	370.00	381.75	382.00	387.75	387.50	378.75	365.75	351.50	343.00	407.00
Close/Last	406.75	390.50	381.25	389.75	391.50	390.75	392.75	379.50	366.25	362.50	427.00	420.25