MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Corn(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	18	22	18	23	24	27	24	16	21	17
Exceeded High		11	17	14	10	19	22	19	22	13	15	12
Scenario Percentage		55%	94%	64%	56%	83%	92%	70%	92%	81%	71%	71%
Avg Max Increase		8.42%	9.98%	8.12%	10.28%	8.51%	8.05%	7.12%	7.08%	9.75%	11.83%	7.21%
Max Increase		30.68%	38.35%	16.30%	28.80%	28.71%	16.78%	26.54%	30.33%	24.95%	60.09%	16.99%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	15	23	16	17	19	12	14	16	10	7
Avg Max Decline		-2.70%	-2.69%	-2.39%	-3.24%	-2.10%	-1.58%	-3.52%	-2.35%	-3.99%	-3.32%	-0.45%
Max Decline		-9.08%	-8.83%	-11.93%	-8.20%	-8.20%	-4.31%	-16.09%	-10.79%	-12.89%	-10.06%	-4.16%
Avg Days to Max Decline		14	7	11	13	9	9	10	9	13	6	2
2018 Contract Condition							Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action							Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		24	27	23	27	22	20	18	21	29	24	28
Penetrated Low		14	23	21	21	16	19	12	18	26	20	17
Scenario Percentage		58%	85%	91%	78%	73%	95%	67%	86%	90%	83%	61%
Avg Max Decline		7.70%	7.19%	6.89%	6.39%	5.43%	6.12%	5.34%	7.36%	9.04%	9.01%	5.64%
Max Decline		35.76%	29.27%	26.37%	22.48%	22.89%	18.80%	10.92%	13.95%	20.53%	21.00%	15.62%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	21	15	12	16	18	12	17	20	12	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.50%	-2.27%	-1.41%	-1.65%	-2.07%	-2.37%	-2.48%	-2.25%	-3.70%	-2.73%	-0.68%
Max Increase		-4.02%	-10.86%	-6.15%	-6.87%	-5.95%	-6.56%	-4.86%	-5.12%	-16.67%	-9.22%	-3.16%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	12	8	8	10	13	11	12	13	5	2
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
Action		No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
High	434.25	411.00	388.25	384.75	381.00	376.00	378.00	391.75	402.75	404.00	412.25	397.00
Low	401.25	371.00	372.50	373.00	365.00	363.25	362.00	372.00	377.50	380.50	390.75	338.75
Close/Last	407.00	384.00	383.75	376.00	371.50	367.25	377.25	389.50	396.25	400.75	394.00	350.25