MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Corn(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	17	22	20	25	21	26	24	15	21	18
Exceeded High		13	15	15	11	19	19	19	22	12	15	13
Scenario Percentage		59%	88%	68%	55%	76%	90%	73%	92%	80%	71%	72%
Avg Max Increase		8.17%	10.75%	7.81%	10.45%	8.19%	8.66%	7.27%	6.97%	13.61%	12.51%	7.36%
Max Increase		30.68%	38.35%	16.30%	28.80%	28.71%	16.78%	26.54%	30.33%	51.63%	60.09%	18.07%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	15	22	15	17	20	12	13	17	11	8
Avg Max Decline		-2.49%	-2.93%	-2.35%	-2.90%	-2.08%	-1.67%	-3.51%	-2.18%	-3.65%	-3.36%	-0.41%
Max Decline		-9.08%	-8.83%	-11.93%	-8.20%	-8.20%	-4.31%	-16.09%	-10.79%	-12.89%	-10.06%	-4.16%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	7	10	12	9	10	9	9	12	6	2
2015 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes		Yes				Yes
Action				Yes		No		No				Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		22	28	23	25	20	23	19	21	30	24	27
Penetrated Low		15	23	19	18	14	22	13	17	26	20	16
Scenario Percentage		68%	82%	83%	72%	70%	96%	68%	81%	87%	83%	59%
Avg Max Decline		7.54%	7.15%	7.02%	6.87%	5.90%	5.86%	5.39%	7.78%	9.20%	8.66%	6.11%
Max Decline		35.76%	29.27%	26.37%	22.48%	22.89%	18.80%	10.92%	13.95%	20.53%	22.44%	16.21%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	21	14	13	17	18	13	18	20	13	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.57%	-2.44%	-1.49%	-1.71%	-2.27%	-2.23%	-2.14%	-2.36%	-3.47%	-2.70%	-1.17%
Max Increase		-4.02%	-10.86%	-6.15%	-6.87%	-5.95%	-6.56%	-4.86%	-5.12%	-16.67%	-9.22%	-8.50%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	12	9	8	11	12	8	12	12	5	3
2015 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	450.50	409.00	394.75	408.25	417.00	431.50	424.25	407.25	406.00	397.75	371.50	415.00
Low	392.25	385.25	348.00	347.00	387.00	392.75	381.50	383.50	375.00	362.50	348.25	336.50
Close/Last	395.25	392.75	349.50	404.25	403.75	412.50	386.00	401.25	384.25	366.25	351.50	414.00