MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Corn(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	17	22	20	24	21	25	24	16	22	18
Exceeded High		14	15	14	11	19	19	19	22	13	16	12
Scenario Percentage		61%	88%	64%	55%	79%	90%	76%	92%	81%	73%	67%
Avg Max Increase		7.82%	10.75%	7.89%	10.45%	8.19%	8.66%	7.27%	6.97%	13.25%	12.28%	7.56%
Max Increase		30.68%	38.35%	16.30%	28.80%	28.71%	16.78%	26.54%	30.33%	51.63%	60.09%	18.07%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	15	22	15	17	20	12	13	18	12	8
Avg Max Decline		-2.42%	-2.93%	-2.21%	-2.90%	-2.08%	-1.67%	-3.51%	-2.18%	-3.44%	-3.16%	-0.22%
Max Decline		-9.08%	-8.83%	-11.93%	-8.20%	-8.20%	-4.31%	-16.09%	-10.79%	-12.89%	-10.06%	-4.16%
Avg Days to Max Decline		13	7	11	12	9	10	9	9	12	5	2
2014 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No					Yes	Yes	Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	28	23	25	21	23	19	21	29	23	27
Penetrated Low		14	22	19	18	15	22	13	16	25	19	16
Scenario Percentage		67%	79%	83%	72%	71%	96%	68%	76%	86%	83%	59%
Avg Max Decline		7.24%	7.44%	7.02%	6.73%	5.72%	5.79%	5.39%	7.68%	9.25%	8.89%	6.11%
Max Decline		35.76%	29.27%	26.37%	22.48%	22.89%	18.80%	10.92%	13.95%	20.53%	22.44%	16.21%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	22	14	13	16	17	13	18	21	13	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.64%	-2.52%	-1.49%	-1.35%	-2.14%	-2.00%	-2.14%	-2.29%	-3.55%	-2.59%	-1.17%
Max Increase		-4.02%	-10.86%	-6.15%	-3.64%	-5.95%	-6.56%	-4.86%	-5.12%	-16.67%	-9.22%	-8.50%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	12	9	7	11	12	8	13	12	5	3
2014 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
High	553.50	532.25	519.25	477.25	464.75	456.00	450.00	468.75	508.25	524.25	522.75	470.50
Low	498.25	473.50	468.00	453.75	435.50	434.25	421.75	443.25	468.00	490.75	465.00	422.50
Close/Last	505.50	508.75	469.00	454.25	440.00	437.00	444.00	467.50	506.75	519.00	465.75	424.25