MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Corn(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		38	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	17	21	22	23	21	23	23	17	22	18
Exceeded High		13	14	13	13	17	17	17	21	14	15	11
Scenario Percentage		65%	82%	62%	59%	74%	81%	74%	91%	82%	68%	61%
Avg Max Increase		6.06%	8.90%	7.56%	9.41%	8.04%	8.32%	7.02%	6.95%	12.52%	12.49%	6.47%
Max Increase		10.89%	38.35%	16.30%	28.80%	28.71%	16.78%	26.54%	30.33%	51.63%	60.09%	9.79%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	16	21	16	18	22	13	13	19	12	8
Avg Max Decline		-2.57%	-2.32%	-1.38%	-1.97%	-1.98%	-1.79%	-2.66%	-1.69%	-2.26%	-3.20%	-0.08%
Max Decline		-9.08%	-8.83%	-3.62%	-7.16%	-8.20%	-4.31%	-9.29%	-6.61%	-6.45%	-10.06%	-1.31%
Avg Days to Max Decline		14	9	12	12	9	11	9	9	10	5	2
2008 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		38	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		18	28	23	23	22	23	21	22	28	23	26
Penetrated Low		11	22	16	16	16	22	14	16	25	18	16
Scenario Percentage		61%	79%	70%	70%	73%	96%	67%	73%	89%	78%	62%
Avg Max Decline		4.39%	5.75%	5.95%	6.12%	4.58%	5.08%	4.69%	7.21%	8.39%	7.64%	5.75%
Max Decline		7.18%	13.65%	17.28%	22.48%	22.89%	18.80%	9.21%	11.48%	20.53%	22.44%	16.21%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	21	15	13	17	16	16	15	22	12	10
Avg Max Increase		-2.01%	-1.84%	-1.23%	-1.29%	-1.56%	-1.63%	-1.95%	-2.19%	-3.35%	-2.00%	-1.14%
Max Increase		-4.02%	-4.53%	-6.15%	-2.76%	-4.29%	-3.97%	-4.43%	-5.07%	-16.67%	-9.22%	-8.50%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	11	8	8	10	8	7	13	12	5	3
2008 Contract Condition		Yes									Yes
Action		No									Not Yet
High	400.50	402.50	421.50	415.25	429.00	478.00	542.25	571.00	600.75	628.75	639.00	765.00
Low	359.75	360.00	371.25	371.75	402.00	419.00	476.50	513.75	515.00	574.50	572.75	595.75
Close/Last	378.25	375.50	407.75	411.00	421.00	476.50	522.25	568.50	582.00	612.25	599.25	724.75