MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Corn(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	37	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	20	16	20	22	23	21	23	22	17	23	18
Exceeded High	13	13	12	13	17	17	17	20	14	16	11
Scenario Percentage	65%	81%	60%	59%	74%	81%	74%	91%	82%	70%	61%
Avg Max Increase	6.06%	9.19%	6.84%	7.46%	7.14%	7.60%	6.42%	6.81%	11.33%	11.88%	5.76%
Max Increase	10.89%	38.35%	15.99%	15.01%	28.71%	16.78%	26.54%	30.33%	51.63%	60.09%	9.79%
Avg Days To Max Increase	14	15	21	16	18	20	12	13	19	13	7
Avg Max Decline	-2.57%	-1.82%	-1.32%	-2.01%	-2.00%	-1.75%	-2.12%	-1.71%	-1.80%	-2.90%	-0.06%
Max Decline	-9.08%	-8.55%	-3.62%	-7.16%	-8.20%	-4.31%	-8.26%	-6.61%	-5.42%	-10.06%	-1.31%
Avg Days to Max Decline	14	9	13	12	9	11	8	9	8	4	2
2007 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	37	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	17	29	24	23	22	23	21	23	28	22	26
Penetrated Low	11	23	16	16	16	22	14	17	25	18	17
Scenario Percentage	65%	79%	67%	70%	73%	96%	67%	74%	89%	82%	65%
Avg Max Decline	4.39%	5.64%	5.95%	6.12%	4.58%	5.08%	4.69%	6.86%	8.39%	7.33%	8.44%
Max Decline	7.18%	13.65%	17.28%	22.48%	22.89%	18.80%	9.21%	11.48%	20.53%	21.00%	35.74%
Avg Days To Max Decline	15	21	15	13	17	16	16	14	22	11	9
Avg Max Increase	-2.01%	-1.77%	-1.23%	-1.29%	-1.56%	-1.63%	-1.95%	-2.05%	-3.35%	-2.00%	-1.57%
Max Increase	-4.02%	-4.53%	-6.15%	-2.76%	-4.29%	-3.97%	-4.43%	-5.07%	-16.67%	-9.22%	-8.50%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	10	8	8	10	8	7	13	12	5	3
2007 Contract Condition	Yes							Yes	Yes		Yes
Action	No							Yes	Yes		Yes
High	297.50	295.00	359.00	402.25	404.50	437.75	459.75	448.50	397.00	401.00	428.75
Low	265.75	265.75	290.75	347.50	372.00	369.50	410.50	385.50	355.00	352.00	323.00
Close/Last	281.50	290.75	348.75	398.00	402.50	422.50	444.25	385.50	367.50	390.25	329.50