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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Crude Oil(NYM) as of Sep 30, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Tested Years   38 39 40 40 41 41 41 41 41 41 41
Closed Higher   20 19 23 28 28 20 21 26 22 22 20
Exceeded High   19 17 22 25 23 14 19 24 17 19 10
Scenario Percentage   95% 89% 96% 89% 82% 70% 90% 92% 77% 86% 50%
Avg Max Increase   10.67% 12.06% 10.38% 9.65% 8.40% 11.31% 9.81% 11.83% 12.17% 8.10% 7.46%
Max Increase   26.11% 33.84% 27.43% 20.39% 31.94% 19.60% 21.06% 75.72% 50.17% 22.54% 15.08%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 13 18 18 15 17 16 20 16 11 12
Avg Max Decline   -1.85% -2.16% -1.93% -2.80% -2.43% -1.63% -2.38% -2.91% -3.09% -3.38% -1.29%
Max Decline   -7.77% -9.97% -13.40% -10.42% -5.98% -6.66% -14.44% -14.62% -14.04% -14.87% -4.31%
Avg Days to Max Decline   9 7 8 7 9 5 7 9 9 5 1
2024 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes        
Action     Yes Yes Yes No   Yes        
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Tested Years   38 39 40 40 41 41 41 41 41 41 41
Closed Lower   18 20 17 12 13 21 20 14 19 19 21
Penetrated Low   12 10 9 7 6 14 14 12 10 16 17
Scenario Percentage   67% 50% 53% 58% 46% 67% 70% 86% 53% 84% 81%
Avg Max Decline   14.92% 17.22% 13.91% 12.69% 6.94% 9.16% 11.56% 12.04% 15.81% 13.10% 9.43%
Max Decline   32.91% 44.76% 44.85% 24.63% 14.84% 21.30% 35.47% 27.64% 47.30% 47.35% 22.15%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 20 15 14 20 18 17 14 18 11 14
Avg Max Increase   -2.44% -2.71% -2.60% -5.17% -3.25% -1.33% -2.42% -2.81% -3.24% -2.54% -2.55%
Max Increase   -9.13% -6.40% -6.97% -10.99% -7.29% -5.62% -8.98% -16.88% -17.88% -12.86% -5.84%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 8 7 9 11 4 9 11 13 5 3
2024 Contract Condition   Yes         Yes   Yes Yes Yes  
Action   No         Yes   Yes Yes Not Yet  
High 77.58 74.18 75.37 74.68 77.87 81.76 77.79 79.47 80.95 76.59 72.50  
Low 70.94 68.49 68.74 69.71 72.81 76.59 73.97 71.23 72.64 69.87 64.16  
Close/Last 73.32 70.30 72.89 73.13 77.84 77.95 75.17 78.34 75.42 71.89 67.77  

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