MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		36	37	38	38	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
Closed Higher		19	18	22	27	26	19	20	25	21	21	19
Exceeded High		18	16	21	24	22	13	18	23	16	19	9
Scenario Percentage		95%	89%	95%	89%	85%	68%	90%	92%	76%	90%	47%
Avg Max Increase		9.81%	10.70%	9.56%	9.31%	7.93%	11.47%	9.38%	11.68%	12.16%	8.05%	7.31%
Max Increase		24.83%	26.16%	21.78%	20.39%	31.94%	19.60%	21.06%	75.72%	50.17%	22.54%	14.57%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	13	19	17	15	18	16	19	16	11	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.92%	-2.20%	-2.02%	-2.88%	-2.37%	-1.65%	-2.43%	-2.86%	-3.27%	-3.38%	-1.36%
Max Decline		-7.77%	-9.97%	-13.40%	-10.42%	-5.98%	-6.66%	-14.44%	-14.62%	-14.04%	-14.87%	-4.31%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	7	9	7	9	6	7	8	9	5	1
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		36	37	38	38	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
Closed Lower		17	19	16	11	13	20	19	13	18	18	20
Penetrated Low		12	9	8	6	6	14	13	11	9	16	16
Scenario Percentage		71%	47%	50%	55%	46%	70%	68%	85%	50%	89%	80%
Avg Max Decline		14.92%	17.32%	13.90%	12.41%	6.94%	9.16%	11.41%	11.37%	15.98%	12.90%	9.04%
Max Decline		32.91%	44.76%	44.85%	24.63%	14.84%	21.30%	35.47%	27.64%	47.30%	46.18%	20.42%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	20	15	16	20	18	17	13	18	11	13
Avg Max Increase		-2.44%	-2.78%	-2.31%	-4.75%	-3.25%	-1.33%	-2.26%	-2.90%	-3.47%	-2.54%	-2.51%
Max Increase		-9.13%	-6.40%	-6.97%	-10.99%	-7.29%	-5.62%	-8.98%	-16.88%	-17.88%	-12.86%	-5.84%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	5	7	8	11	4	9	9	14	5	3
2021 Contract Condition					Yes					Yes
Action					No					No
High	45.86	48.50	51.59	59.52	62.74	62.76	64.90	71.07	72.61	71.53	76.26	85.41
Low	37.70	44.19	46.81	49.33	55.43	56.15	59.83	63.97	63.37	61.11	66.65	73.92
Close/Last	45.32	47.68	49.73	57.20	56.85	61.03	63.91	70.13	71.57	67.94	74.70	83.57