MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Crude Oil(NYM) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		35	36	37	37	38	38	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Higher		18	17	21	27	25	18	19	24	21	20	18
Exceeded High		17	15	20	24	21	12	17	22	16	18	9
Scenario Percentage		94%	88%	95%	89%	84%	67%	89%	92%	76%	90%	50%
Avg Max Increase		8.93%	9.67%	9.56%	9.31%	7.53%	11.29%	9.72%	11.92%	12.16%	7.75%	7.36%
Max Increase		19.00%	24.64%	21.78%	20.39%	31.94%	19.60%	21.06%	75.72%	50.17%	22.54%	15.08%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	13	18	17	15	19	17	19	16	11	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.92%	-2.29%	-1.97%	-2.88%	-2.39%	-1.79%	-2.49%	-2.32%	-3.27%	-3.51%	-1.36%
Max Decline		-7.77%	-9.97%	-13.40%	-10.42%	-5.98%	-6.66%	-14.44%	-13.97%	-14.04%	-14.87%	-4.31%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	7	9	7	8	6	7	8	9	5	1
2020 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		35	36	37	37	38	38	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Lower		17	19	16	10	13	20	19	13	17	18	20
Penetrated Low		12	9	8	6	6	14	13	11	9	16	16
Scenario Percentage		71%	47%	50%	60%	46%	70%	68%	85%	53%	89%	80%
Avg Max Decline		14.92%	17.32%	13.90%	12.41%	6.94%	9.16%	11.41%	11.37%	15.98%	13.10%	9.34%
Max Decline		32.91%	44.76%	44.85%	24.63%	14.84%	21.30%	35.47%	27.64%	47.30%	47.35%	22.15%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	20	15	16	20	18	17	13	18	11	13
Avg Max Increase		-2.44%	-2.78%	-2.31%	-4.75%	-3.25%	-1.33%	-2.26%	-2.90%	-3.47%	-2.54%	-2.51%
Max Increase		-9.13%	-6.40%	-6.97%	-10.99%	-7.29%	-5.62%	-8.98%	-16.88%	-17.88%	-12.86%	-5.84%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	5	7	8	11	4	9	9	14	5	3
2020 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	No					Yes	Yes
High	54.99	57.68	59.51	54.05	49.09	37.27	37.13	41.98	42.85	44.33	43.98	41.90
Low	51.31	52.51	50.15	45.17	28.06	25.31	27.57	35.72	39.38	40.60	37.11	34.92
Close/Last	52.31	56.44	50.80	45.89	33.58	29.62	36.92	39.68	41.22	43.21	40.47	35.79