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ScenarioSM Study for December Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jun 08, 2020 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct |
Tested Years | 34 | 35 | 36 | 36 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | |
Closed Higher | 17 | 17 | 21 | 27 | 25 | 17 | 18 | 23 | 20 | 20 | 18 | |
Exceeded High | 16 | 15 | 20 | 24 | 21 | 11 | 16 | 21 | 16 | 18 | 9 | |
Scenario Percentage | 94% | 88% | 95% | 89% | 84% | 65% | 89% | 91% | 80% | 90% | 50% | |
Avg Max Increase | 9.15% | 9.67% | 9.56% | 9.31% | 7.53% | 10.86% | 9.60% | 12.13% | 12.16% | 7.75% | 7.36% | |
Max Increase | 19.00% | 24.64% | 21.78% | 20.39% | 31.94% | 19.60% | 21.06% | 75.72% | 50.17% | 22.54% | 15.08% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 18 | 13 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 11 | 12 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.92% | -2.29% | -1.97% | -2.88% | -2.39% | -1.66% | -2.60% | -2.36% | -3.27% | -3.51% | -1.36% | |
Max Decline | -7.77% | -9.97% | -13.40% | -10.42% | -5.98% | -6.66% | -14.44% | -13.97% | -14.04% | -14.87% | -4.31% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 10 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 1 | |
2019 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.