MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		23	24	25	25	26	26	26	26	26	26	26
Closed Higher		11	12	15	19	18	14	13	17	15	16	12
Exceeded High		10	10	14	16	16	8	13	15	12	14	5
Scenario Percentage		91%	83%	93%	84%	89%	57%	100%	88%	80%	88%	42%
Avg Max Increase		10.45%	10.98%	10.40%	8.77%	8.35%	12.22%	9.78%	14.07%	13.70%	7.61%	6.56%
Max Increase		19.00%	24.64%	21.78%	19.26%	31.94%	19.60%	21.06%	75.72%	50.17%	22.54%	15.08%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	14	17	17	17	20	17	20	17	11	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.89%	-1.62%	-1.02%	-3.00%	-2.37%	-1.92%	-1.77%	-1.61%	-2.40%	-3.98%	-1.34%
Max Decline		-7.77%	-4.39%	-4.90%	-10.42%	-5.98%	-6.66%	-6.88%	-10.31%	-14.04%	-14.87%	-2.61%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	7	9	7	10	7	8	8	8	5	2
2008 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		23	24	25	25	26	26	26	26	26	26	26
Closed Lower		12	12	10	6	8	12	13	8	11	10	14
Penetrated Low		8	5	5	3	5	8	9	6	6	9	10
Scenario Percentage		67%	42%	50%	50%	63%	67%	69%	75%	55%	90%	71%
Avg Max Decline		13.76%	15.77%	9.47%	6.73%	5.36%	7.82%	7.50%	11.16%	17.23%	14.67%	10.16%
Max Decline		32.91%	39.08%	27.46%	8.86%	8.21%	13.26%	18.88%	27.64%	47.30%	47.35%	22.15%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	22	11	13	20	15	18	14	19	13	15
Avg Max Increase		-1.13%	-1.20%	-1.32%	-3.18%	-3.08%	-1.34%	-1.63%	-4.42%	-4.33%	-1.87%	-3.09%
Max Increase		-5.66%	-4.01%	-2.66%	-7.36%	-7.29%	-5.62%	-6.82%	-16.88%	-17.88%	-6.16%	-5.84%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	3	5	8	9	3	6	13	16	4	4
2008 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			No		No				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
High	90.44	92.20	94.74	100.61	105.00	115.28	136.25	144.82	148.60	129.58	118.95	102.37
Low	82.90	84.09	83.90	85.60	95.83	96.62	107.00	122.37	121.92	112.37	90.66	61.30
Close/Last	84.94	90.97	90.17	99.49	98.37	109.76	126.91	141.45	125.29	116.31	100.26	67.81