MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years	22	23	24	24	25	25	25	25	25	25	25
Closed Higher	10	12	14	19	17	13	12	17	15	16	12
Exceeded High	9	10	13	16	15	7	12	15	12	14	4
Scenario Percentage	90%	83%	93%	84%	88%	54%	100%	88%	80%	88%	33%
Avg Max Increase	10.44%	10.98%	10.06%	8.77%	6.77%	11.52%	10.17%	14.07%	13.70%	7.15%	3.29%
Max Increase	19.00%	24.64%	21.78%	19.26%	19.34%	19.60%	21.06%	75.72%	50.17%	22.54%	4.33%
Avg Days To Max Increase	17	14	16	17	16	21	17	20	17	11	9
Avg Max Decline	-1.24%	-1.62%	-0.76%	-3.00%	-2.36%	-1.69%	-1.68%	-1.61%	-2.40%	-3.98%	-1.12%
Max Decline	-5.10%	-4.39%	-4.90%	-10.42%	-5.98%	-6.66%	-6.88%	-10.31%	-14.04%	-14.87%	-2.61%
Avg Days to Max Decline	9	7	8	7	11	7	8	8	8	5	2
2007 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	No	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years	22	23	24	24	25	25	25	25	25	25	25
Closed Lower	12	11	10	5	8	12	13	7	10	9	13
Penetrated Low	8	5	5	3	5	8	9	5	5	8	11
Scenario Percentage	67%	45%	50%	60%	62%	67%	69%	71%	50%	89%	85%
Avg Max Decline	13.76%	15.77%	9.47%	6.73%	5.36%	7.82%	7.50%	7.86%	11.21%	9.64%	22.43%
Max Decline	32.91%	39.08%	27.46%	8.86%	8.21%	13.26%	18.88%	18.91%	21.09%	27.58%	63.95%
Avg Days To Max Decline	19	22	11	13	20	15	18	14	18	13	13
Avg Max Increase	-1.13%	-1.20%	-1.32%	-3.18%	-3.08%	-1.34%	-1.63%	-4.62%	-4.74%	-1.84%	-4.37%
Max Increase	-5.66%	-4.01%	-2.66%	-7.36%	-7.29%	-5.62%	-6.82%	-16.88%	-17.88%	-6.16%	-17.01%
Avg Days to Max Increase	10	3	5	8	9	3	6	16	19	4	6
2007 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes				Yes			Yes
Action	Yes	No				No			No
High	69.89	65.90	67.08	71.49	71.04	70.86	71.81	76.15	76.60	82.45	95.28
Low	65.71	54.97	60.64	63.61	67.16	66.14	67.25	70.82	68.21	72.01	77.71
Close/Last	66.79	62.65	66.89	69.71	70.11	67.57	71.44	76.05	72.46	80.48	94.53