MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November Crude Oil(NYM) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years		33	33	36	37	37	38	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Higher		15	16	17	22	26	25	18	19	24	21	20
Exceeded High		13	16	14	19	24	21	14	17	22	17	16
Scenario Percentage		87%	100%	82%	86%	92%	84%	78%	89%	92%	81%	80%
Avg Max Increase		8.97%	8.08%	10.36%	10.00%	9.01%	7.58%	10.17%	9.99%	12.75%	11.50%	5.44%
Max Increase		14.39%	19.47%	24.33%	22.99%	21.11%	30.62%	19.30%	21.00%	85.48%	52.07%	11.46%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	18	17	20	17	13	18	15	18	13	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.56%	-1.82%	-2.17%	-1.97%	-2.87%	-2.22%	-2.10%	-2.61%	-2.42%	-3.77%	-2.58%
Max Decline		-7.78%	-7.26%	-9.78%	-13.57%	-10.64%	-6.56%	-7.56%	-14.99%	-13.87%	-14.66%	-14.33%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	9	8	10	9	9	7	8	8	9	3
2020 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years		33	33	36	37	37	38	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Lower		18	17	18	15	10	13	20	19	13	17	18
Penetrated Low		15	12	9	8	6	6	15	13	10	8	12
Scenario Percentage		83%	71%	50%	53%	60%	46%	75%	68%	77%	47%	67%
Avg Max Decline		13.76%	14.60%	17.44%	12.87%	12.74%	7.28%	9.04%	11.82%	12.96%	16.27%	8.08%
Max Decline		29.15%	34.08%	46.53%	46.58%	25.77%	15.18%	22.02%	36.28%	27.64%	40.81%	31.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	17	19	12	16	20	17	17	14	11	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.00%	-1.86%	-2.46%	-2.06%	-4.81%	-3.44%	-1.23%	-2.30%	-2.99%	-1.89%	-1.37%
Max Increase		-7.37%	-9.13%	-6.26%	-7.13%	-12.06%	-7.78%	-5.78%	-8.90%	-16.89%	-6.43%	-4.83%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	8	5	8	8	17	4	9	9	8	2
2020 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	No					Not Yet
High	53.91	55.16	58.09	60.02	54.17	48.99	36.88	36.90	41.91	42.75	44.05	43.70
Low	49.33	52.27	52.86	50.46	45.02	27.26	24.43	26.73	35.54	39.25	40.25	36.58
Close/Last	51.59	52.53	56.85	50.98	45.73	32.91	28.72	36.67	39.58	40.91	42.90	40.22