MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years	22	22	25	26	26	27	27	27	27	27	27
Closed Higher	8	10	12	15	19	18	15	14	18	15	16
Exceeded High	6	10	9	14	17	16	11	14	16	13	13
Scenario Percentage	75%	100%	75%	93%	89%	89%	73%	100%	89%	87%	81%
Avg Max Increase	8.44%	9.35%	12.18%	10.43%	9.01%	8.42%	10.43%	9.79%	14.52%	12.61%	5.30%
Max Increase	14.39%	19.47%	24.33%	22.99%	21.11%	30.62%	19.30%	21.00%	85.48%	52.07%	11.46%
Avg Days To Max Increase	12	20	17	19	17	15	18	14	18	14	12
Avg Max Decline	-0.81%	-1.63%	-1.44%	-0.98%	-3.19%	-2.19%	-2.11%	-2.80%	-1.62%	-3.11%	-3.05%
Max Decline	-4.54%	-7.26%	-4.05%	-4.42%	-10.64%	-6.56%	-7.56%	-14.99%	-10.88%	-14.66%	-14.33%
Avg Days to Max Decline	3	11	7	9	11	11	7	9	7	8	4
2009 Contract Condition					Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action					Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years	22	22	25	26	26	27	27	27	27	27	27
Closed Lower	14	12	12	11	6	9	12	13	8	12	11
Penetrated Low	11	9	6	6	3	5	9	9	5	6	9
Scenario Percentage	79%	75%	50%	55%	50%	56%	75%	69%	62%	50%	82%
Avg Max Decline	12.36%	14.42%	15.86%	8.13%	6.90%	5.70%	7.57%	7.82%	14.14%	16.36%	26.52%
Max Decline	25.88%	34.08%	39.90%	27.37%	8.72%	9.65%	14.13%	19.48%	27.64%	40.81%	60.73%
Avg Days To Max Decline	20	18	21	9	13	20	14	18	17	12	8
Avg Max Increase	-0.01%	-1.73%	-1.29%	-0.83%	-2.95%	-3.27%	-1.22%	-1.67%	-4.90%	-2.25%	-4.27%
Max Increase	-3.61%	-9.13%	-4.04%	-2.24%	-7.73%	-7.78%	-5.78%	-6.74%	-16.89%	-6.43%	-19.97%
Avg Days to Max Increase	8	9	4	4	8	15	3	6	15	9	5
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes	No		No				Yes	Not Yet
High	79.10	60.28	63.22	55.92	61.22	61.07	68.78	75.83	73.91	75.89	73.58
Low	58.93	47.89	52.25	45.87	47.48	54.20	55.83	68.78	61.38	68.90	65.05
Close/Last	64.61	57.93	54.16	51.89	56.79	56.41	68.68	72.20	72.40	70.66	70.61