MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years	20	20	23	24	24	25	25	25	25	25	25
Closed Higher	8	9	12	14	18	17	13	12	17	15	16
Exceeded High	6	9	9	13	16	15	9	12	15	13	13
Scenario Percentage	75%	100%	75%	93%	89%	88%	69%	100%	88%	87%	81%
Avg Max Increase	8.44%	9.28%	12.18%	10.11%	8.26%	6.94%	9.72%	10.56%	15.17%	12.80%	5.48%
Max Increase	14.39%	19.47%	24.33%	22.99%	19.59%	20.02%	19.30%	21.00%	85.48%	52.07%	11.46%
Avg Days To Max Increase	12	19	17	18	16	14	20	15	19	15	13
Avg Max Decline	-0.81%	-1.01%	-1.44%	-0.72%	-3.10%	-2.17%	-2.19%	-1.76%	-1.70%	-3.11%	-3.05%
Max Decline	-4.54%	-4.63%	-4.05%	-4.42%	-10.64%	-6.56%	-7.56%	-8.17%	-10.88%	-14.66%	-14.33%
Avg Days to Max Decline	3	9	7	9	10	12	8	9	8	8	4
2007 Contract Condition	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years	20	20	23	24	24	25	25	25	25	25	25
Closed Lower	12	11	10	10	5	8	12	13	7	10	9
Penetrated Low	10	8	5	6	3	5	9	9	4	5	8
Scenario Percentage	83%	73%	50%	60%	60%	62%	75%	69%	57%	50%	89%
Avg Max Decline	11.01%	13.62%	15.97%	8.13%	6.90%	5.70%	7.57%	7.82%	10.76%	10.83%	25.46%
Max Decline	23.85%	34.08%	39.90%	27.37%	8.72%	9.65%	14.13%	19.48%	20.98%	20.88%	60.73%
Avg Days To Max Decline	19	18	22	9	13	20	14	18	17	12	9
Avg Max Increase	-0.68%	-0.80%	-0.90%	-0.83%	-2.95%	-3.27%	-1.22%	-1.67%	-5.28%	-5.52%	-4.53%
Max Increase	-3.61%	-6.02%	-4.04%	-2.24%	-7.73%	-7.78%	-5.78%	-6.74%	-16.89%	-20.38%	-19.97%
Avg Days to Max Increase	9	10	3	4	8	15	3	6	19	14	6
2007 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes				Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	No				No			Not Yet
High	69.12	69.68	63.72	66.58	69.93	70.70	70.27	71.45	76.90	77.30	83.76
Low	65.55	65.59	55.30	60.90	63.64	67.39	65.68	66.90	70.53	68.46	72.81
Close/Last	69.12	66.53	62.34	66.58	69.56	69.74	67.08	71.24	76.82	73.32	81.66