MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for October Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		29	32	33	35	35	35	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Higher		10	14	16	17	20	25	23	17	17	22	20
Exceeded High		6	12	16	15	18	23	20	12	14	20	12
Scenario Percentage		60%	86%	100%	88%	90%	92%	87%	71%	82%	91%	60%
Avg Max Increase		8.01%	8.81%	8.81%	9.37%	9.81%	9.30%	8.18%	10.49%	10.99%	11.53%	8.50%
Max Increase		11.14%	15.18%	19.73%	23.95%	23.22%	22.54%	30.51%	19.08%	21.40%	59.28%	23.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase		21	15	17	15	19	16	15	18	16	12	13
Avg Max Decline		-1.29%	-1.95%	-1.67%	-2.30%	-1.81%	-3.18%	-2.28%	-2.33%	-1.98%	-1.64%	-0.86%
Max Decline		-1.88%	-8.05%	-7.95%	-10.00%	-13.93%	-10.86%	-7.80%	-8.52%	-10.10%	-11.56%	-4.69%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	7	9	7	10	10	8	7	8	4	3
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		No		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		29	32	33	35	35	35	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Lower		18	18	17	17	15	10	13	19	19	14	16
Penetrated Low		15	16	12	9	7	6	7	14	13	10	7
Scenario Percentage		83%	89%	71%	53%	47%	60%	54%	74%	68%	71%	44%
Avg Max Decline		11.12%	13.41%	14.97%	13.72%	8.30%	9.20%	7.57%	10.19%	12.22%	11.17%	8.62%
Max Decline		36.38%	30.25%	35.26%	40.71%	27.42%	17.19%	15.47%	22.74%	37.19%	27.31%	21.61%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	19	17	19	12	13	22	18	16	10	12
Avg Max Increase		-2.03%	-1.48%	-2.06%	-3.06%	-2.66%	-2.90%	-3.32%	-1.52%	-2.46%	-1.66%	-1.12%
Max Increase		-6.61%	-11.57%	-7.39%	-9.81%	-8.35%	-6.97%	-8.32%	-5.26%	-8.88%	-4.90%	-2.72%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	9	8	3	10	3	13	4	10	5	2
2018 Contract Condition						Yes			Yes		Yes
Action						No			Yes		Yes
High	52.51	53.57	56.42	58.86	63.27	62.86	64.19	67.84	71.63	71.29	71.05	70.50
Low	49.77	50.06	52.91	54.69	58.58	55.77	57.66	60.55	65.03	62.60	65.20	63.89
Close/Last	51.65	53.43	55.55	58.72	61.97	59.04	62.92	67.09	66.11	70.92	67.63	69.80