MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for October Crude Oil(NYM) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		27	30	31	33	33	33	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Higher		9	12	14	16	19	24	22	17	16	21	19
Exceeded High		5	10	14	14	18	22	19	12	14	19	11
Scenario Percentage		56%	83%	100%	88%	95%	92%	86%	71%	88%	90%	58%
Avg Max Increase		7.58%	8.21%	9.35%	9.79%	9.81%	9.09%	8.25%	10.49%	10.99%	12.11%	9.05%
Max Increase		11.14%	15.18%	19.73%	23.95%	23.22%	22.54%	30.51%	19.08%	21.40%	59.28%	23.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	15	18	14	19	16	14	18	16	13	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.35%	-2.09%	-1.75%	-1.75%	-1.81%	-3.16%	-2.27%	-2.33%	-1.98%	-1.54%	-0.56%
Max Decline		-1.88%	-8.05%	-7.95%	-4.34%	-13.93%	-10.86%	-7.80%	-8.52%	-10.10%	-11.56%	-4.69%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	6	10	7	10	10	8	7	8	4	3
2016 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		No					Yes	Yes	Yes			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		27	30	31	33	33	33	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Lower		17	18	17	16	14	9	12	17	18	13	15
Penetrated Low		14	16	12	8	7	5	6	12	13	9	7
Scenario Percentage		82%	89%	71%	50%	50%	56%	50%	71%	72%	69%	47%
Avg Max Decline		11.46%	13.41%	14.97%	13.97%	8.30%	8.37%	6.25%	10.36%	12.22%	11.80%	8.62%
Max Decline		36.38%	30.25%	35.26%	40.71%	27.42%	17.19%	11.56%	22.74%	37.19%	27.31%	21.61%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	19	17	19	12	14	22	18	16	10	12
Avg Max Increase		-2.12%	-1.48%	-2.06%	-3.15%	-2.66%	-2.35%	-3.14%	-1.60%	-2.46%	-1.64%	-1.12%
Max Increase		-6.61%	-11.57%	-7.39%	-9.81%	-8.35%	-6.97%	-8.32%	-5.26%	-8.88%	-4.90%	-2.72%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	9	8	4	10	1	12	4	10	5	2
2016 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	No	No				Yes	Yes
High	52.85	54.34	52.75	47.89	44.07	40.54	44.54	48.52	51.19	53.02	50.62	49.36
Low	49.28	48.49	46.76	41.19	33.28	35.44	39.12	39.08	45.03	47.10	41.30	39.96
Close/Last	49.99	51.47	47.71	42.87	40.84	39.63	42.33	47.78	50.27	49.59	42.33	44.70