MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for October Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		25	28	29	31	31	31	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Higher		8	12	14	16	18	23	20	16	16	21	17
Exceeded High		5	10	14	14	17	21	17	11	14	19	11
Scenario Percentage		63%	83%	100%	88%	94%	91%	85%	69%	88%	90%	65%
Avg Max Increase		7.58%	8.21%	9.35%	9.79%	10.02%	8.52%	8.34%	10.95%	10.99%	12.59%	9.77%
Max Increase		11.14%	15.18%	19.73%	23.95%	23.22%	22.54%	30.51%	19.08%	21.40%	64.94%	28.11%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	15	18	14	18	15	15	19	16	14	14
Avg Max Decline		-1.35%	-2.09%	-1.75%	-1.75%	-1.09%	-2.94%	-2.11%	-2.32%	-1.98%	-1.54%	-0.81%
Max Decline		-1.88%	-8.05%	-7.95%	-4.34%	-5.04%	-10.86%	-7.80%	-8.52%	-10.10%	-11.56%	-4.69%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	6	10	7	9	11	9	7	8	4	3
2014 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action				Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		25	28	29	31	31	31	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Lower		16	16	15	14	13	8	12	16	16	11	15
Penetrated Low		13	14	10	7	7	5	6	11	11	7	7
Scenario Percentage		81%	88%	67%	50%	54%	63%	50%	69%	69%	64%	47%
Avg Max Decline		10.11%	11.35%	14.43%	14.75%	8.30%	8.37%	6.25%	9.23%	9.30%	11.43%	8.94%
Max Decline		36.38%	26.39%	35.26%	40.71%	27.42%	17.19%	11.56%	15.23%	21.09%	27.31%	21.61%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	19	17	19	12	14	22	17	16	9	12
Avg Max Increase		-2.30%	-1.38%	-1.96%	-2.20%	-2.66%	-2.35%	-3.14%	-1.50%	-2.80%	-2.08%	-1.12%
Max Increase		-6.61%	-11.57%	-7.39%	-5.68%	-8.35%	-6.97%	-8.32%	-5.26%	-8.88%	-4.90%	-2.72%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	10	9	4	10	1	12	4	11	6	2
2014 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		No			No			Yes	Yes
High	96.10	96.56	93.24	94.83	94.38	97.62	98.71	99.80	101.35	105.55	104.46	97.75
Low	92.55	91.65	90.99	92.14	88.69	90.54	93.72	94.61	95.59	99.14	96.75	92.50
Close/Last	93.63	92.75	91.65	94.00	91.21	96.92	97.04	96.50	100.00	103.85	97.32	95.96