MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		27	29	30	30	32	32	32	33	33	33	33
Closed Higher		12	12	13	14	17	19	23	21	15	17	21
Exceeded High		10	7	11	14	16	18	21	18	12	15	18
Scenario Percentage		83%	58%	85%	100%	94%	95%	91%	86%	80%	88%	86%
Avg Max Increase		7.20%	8.51%	9.51%	9.44%	10.38%	10.24%	8.93%	8.55%	10.64%	9.99%	8.46%
Max Increase		21.09%	14.18%	17.87%	20.30%	24.34%	25.29%	23.85%	29.55%	18.59%	16.41%	40.41%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	23	15	19	17	18	14	14	20	9	10
Avg Max Decline		-1.13%	-2.95%	-1.99%	-2.36%	-2.81%	-1.88%	-3.03%	-2.20%	-2.92%	-2.35%	-0.79%
Max Decline		-5.19%	-9.17%	-7.94%	-8.33%	-10.21%	-14.19%	-11.27%	-8.44%	-9.48%	-12.43%	-3.77%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	16	6	10	9	10	10	7	9	12	1
2015 Contract Condition							Yes		Yes
Action							Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		27	29	30	30	32	32	32	33	33	33	33
Closed Lower		15	17	17	16	15	13	9	12	18	16	12
Penetrated Low		12	14	15	11	8	7	5	6	12	11	8
Scenario Percentage		80%	82%	88%	69%	53%	54%	56%	50%	67%	69%	67%
Avg Max Decline		11.94%	11.96%	12.74%	15.09%	14.80%	8.54%	8.92%	6.75%	11.85%	11.72%	8.87%
Max Decline		44.61%	37.24%	26.93%	37.89%	41.53%	27.40%	17.35%	13.57%	23.21%	32.48%	20.89%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	20	18	17	17	12	19	22	17	15	11
Avg Max Increase		-0.78%	-2.68%	-1.86%	-2.44%	-3.18%	-3.04%	-2.78%	-3.65%	-1.39%	-2.26%	-1.77%
Max Increase		-4.17%	-6.84%	-11.90%	-9.95%	-10.20%	-10.12%	-8.52%	-9.34%	-3.66%	-7.70%	-4.10%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	9	8	9	5	11	1	12	5	8	2
2015 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		No		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	93.38	92.27	88.05	80.57	70.34	58.62	59.95	58.18	61.93	64.45	62.51	59.35
Low	90.76	87.18	77.57	67.25	56.32	49.90	53.27	49.69	52.13	57.09	57.54	46.68
Close/Last	92.31	87.26	80.13	67.59	57.50	54.40	57.91	52.69	61.78	60.79	59.83	47.12